EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Italy › Frosinone vs Lecce
Serie AThu 29 Oct, 17:30 Italy time

Frosinone vs Lecce prediction

Stadio Benito Stirpe

FrosinoneHome
1.79 : 1.24
expected goals
LecceAway
50%Frosinone
24%Draw
26%Lecce
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Frosinone vs Lecce is Frosinone to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Frosinone to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Frosinone 1.8, Lecce 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Frosinone to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Frosinone 50%, the draw 24% and Lecce 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Frosinone the favourite at 1.87.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Frosinone took 10 points from their last 5 games and Lecce took 6 from 5. Frosinone come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Frosinone won 8 of their last 12 games at home. Lecce won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Frosinone score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Lecce score 1.0 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Frosinone games and 11 of Lecce games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Frosinonerecent form+1%
  • Leccerecent form-3%
  • Leccerest between games-5%
Frosinone form D L W D WLecce form D L L W LHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Frosinone vs Lecce: Frosinone are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Frosinone host Lecce in the Serie A on Thu 29 Oct, 17:30 at Stadio Benito Stirpe. Our prediction for Frosinone vs Lecce is Frosinone to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Frosinone form

Frosinone have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Lecce form

Lecce have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Frosinone to score about 1.8 goals and Lecce about 1.2. That points to Frosinone to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Frosinone to win and Over 2.5 at 2.98.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FrosinoneLecce
Games played2020
Wins127
Draws62
Losses211
Goals scored4320
Goals conceded2131
Scored per game2.11.0
Conceded per game1.11.6
Home record8W 3D 1L3W 1D 5L
Away record4W 3D 1L4W 1D 6L
Clean sheets35%20%
Both teams scored55%40%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Frosinone to win48%2.091.87-10.5%
A Draw24%4.243.50-17.5%
Lecce to win25%4.023.55-11.8%
Over 2.5 goals54%1.851.54-16.9%
Under 2.5 goals42%2.402.30-4.1%
Frosinone -0.548%2.081.80-13.7%
Lecce +0.548%2.081.80-13.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.71
Over 3.5 goals36%2.78
Both teams to score60%1.67
Frosinone or Draw74%1.35
Lecce or Draw50%1.99
Frosinone to win and Over 2.534%2.94
Lecce to win and Over 2.517%5.96
Frosinone clean sheet29%3.46
Lecce clean sheet17%6.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.6%
1-08.0%
2-07.7%
1-26.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Frosinone vs Lecce?

Our prediction for Frosinone vs Lecce is Frosinone to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Frosinone vs Lecce?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Frosinone to score 1.8 goals and Lecce 1.2.

Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Lecce?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Frosinone last 20 games and 8 of Lecce last 20.

How are Frosinone playing?

Frosinone have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Lecce playing?

Lecce have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Frosinone vs Lecce?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Frosinone against Lecce. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.