Predictions › Italy › Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Serie AFri 16 Oct, 18:45 Italy time

Frosinone vs Sassuolo prediction

Stadio Benito Stirpe

FrosinoneHome

1.40 : 1.27

expected goals

SassuoloAway

39%Frosinone

27%Draw

33%Sassuolo

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.56

Quick answer

Our prediction for Frosinone vs Sassuolo is Frosinone to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.56.

Prediction: Frosinone to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Frosinone 1.4, Sassuolo 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.56
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

62% chancePrice 1.561 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Frosinone 39%, the draw 27% and Sassuolo 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Frosinone the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Frosinone took 10 points from their last 5 games and Sassuolo took 7 from 5. Frosinone come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Frosinone won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Sassuolo won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Frosinone score 2.2 goals a game and let in 0.8. Sassuolo score 1.4 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Frosinone games and 15 of Sassuolo games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 62% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Frosinonerecent form+3%
Sassuolorecent form+3%

Frosinone form W D W L WSassuolo form L W D W WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Frosinone vs Sassuolo: Frosinone shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Frosinone host Sassuolo in the Serie A on Fri 16 Oct, 18:45 at Stadio Benito Stirpe. Our prediction for Frosinone vs Sassuolo is Frosinone to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.56.

Frosinone form

Frosinone have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Sassuolo form

Sassuolo have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Frosinone to score about 1.4 goals and Sassuolo about 1.3. That points to Frosinone to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.56. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Frosinone	Sassuolo
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	8
Draws	6	3
Losses	1	9
Goals scored	44	28
Goals conceded	17	30
Scored per game	2.2	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	1.5
Home record	7W 3D 1L	7W 0D 3L
Away record	6W 3D 0L	1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	40%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Frosinone to win	37%	2.69	2.30	-14.6%
A Draw	27%	3.68	3.30	-10.4%
Sassuolo to win	32%	3.09	2.70	-12.6%
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.86	2.30	-19.5%
Under 3.5 goals	62%	1.61	1.56	-3.4%
Frosinone -0.5	38%	2.65	2.25	-15.2%
Sassuolo +0.5	56%	1.78	1.53	-14.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.59
Both teams to score	55%	1.82
Frosinone or Draw	67%	1.50
Sassuolo or Draw	61%	1.65
Frosinone to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.23
Sassuolo to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.11
Frosinone clean sheet	28%	3.55
Sassuolo clean sheet	25%	4.06

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

1-09.0%

2-18.6%

0-18.1%

1-27.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

Our prediction for Frosinone vs Sassuolo is Frosinone to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.56.

What is the score prediction for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Frosinone to score 1.4 goals and Sassuolo 1.3.

Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Frosinone last 20 games and 14 of Sassuolo last 20.

How are Frosinone playing?

How are Sassuolo playing?

What is the best bet for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.56, with a 62% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Frosinone against Sassuolo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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