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Predictions › Japan › Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
J1 LeagueSun 8 Nov, 06:00 Japan time

Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka prediction

Suita City Football Stadium

Gamba OsakaHome
1.70 : 1.20
expected goals
Cerezo OsakaAway
48%Gamba Osaka
25%Draw
26%Cerezo Osaka
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka is Gamba Osaka to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Gamba Osaka to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Gamba Osaka 1.7, Cerezo Osaka 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Gamba Osaka to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Gamba Osaka 48%, the draw 25% and Cerezo Osaka 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Gamba Osaka took 5 points from their last 5 games and Cerezo Osaka took 4 from 5. Gamba Osaka come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Cerezo Osaka won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Gamba Osaka score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.5. Cerezo Osaka score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Gamba Osaka games and 10 of Cerezo Osaka games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Gamba Osaka won 0 and Cerezo Osaka won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Gamba Osaka 0, Cerezo Osaka 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Gamba Osakarecent form+3%
  • Cerezo Osakarecent form-1%
Gamba Osaka form D D W D WCerezo Osaka form D D L D DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka: Gamba Osaka are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Gamba Osaka host Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League on Sun 8 Nov, 06:00 at Suita City Football Stadium. Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka is Gamba Osaka to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Gamba Osaka form

Gamba Osaka have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Cerezo Osaka form

Cerezo Osaka have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Gamba Osaka won 0, Cerezo Osaka won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Gamba Osaka 0, Cerezo Osaka 1.

Our call

We expect Gamba Osaka to score about 1.7 goals and Cerezo Osaka about 1.2. That points to Gamba Osaka to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Gamba Osaka to win and Over 2.5 at 3.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Gamba OsakaCerezo Osaka
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws89
Losses74
Goals scored2931
Goals conceded3029
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.51.4
Home record2W 3D 3L5W 5D 1L
Away record3W 5D 4L2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.26
Over 2.5 goals55%1.80
Over 3.5 goals33%3.02
Both teams to score58%1.73
Gamba Osaka or Draw74%1.36
Cerezo Osaka or Draw52%1.94
Gamba Osaka to win and Over 2.532%3.14
Cerezo Osaka to win and Over 2.516%6.09
Gamba Osaka clean sheet30%3.32
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet18%5.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
2-19.5%
1-08.7%
2-08.0%
1-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka is Gamba Osaka to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Gamba Osaka to score 1.7 goals and Cerezo Osaka 1.2.

Will both teams score in Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Gamba Osaka last 20 games and 13 of Cerezo Osaka last 20.

How are Gamba Osaka playing?

Gamba Osaka have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Cerezo Osaka playing?

Cerezo Osaka have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Gamba Osaka and Cerezo Osaka last met?

It ended Gamba Osaka 0, Cerezo Osaka 1. In the last 2 meetings Gamba Osaka won 0 and Cerezo Osaka won 1.

What is the best bet for Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gamba Osaka against Cerezo Osaka. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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