Predictions › Japan › Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

J1 LeagueSat 21 Nov, 07:00 Japan time

Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama prediction

Suita City Football Stadium

Gamba OsakaHome

1.49 : 1.53

expected goals

Fagiano OkayamaAway

36%Gamba Osaka

26%Draw

38%Okayama

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Fagiano Okayama to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.5, Fagiano Okayama 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Gamba Osaka 36%, the draw 26% and Fagiano Okayama 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Gamba Osaka took 6 points from their last 5 games and Fagiano Okayama took 4 from 5. Gamba Osaka come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Fagiano Okayama won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Gamba Osaka score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Gamba Osaka games and 13 of Fagiano Okayama games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Gamba Osaka won 1 and Fagiano Okayama won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Gamba Osaka 2, Fagiano Okayama 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Gamba Osakarecent form-1%
Okayamarecent form-3%

Gamba Osaka form L D D D DOkayama form D L L W LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama: Fagiano Okayama shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Gamba Osaka host Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League on Sat 21 Nov, 07:00 at Suita City Football Stadium. Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Gamba Osaka form

Gamba Osaka have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Fagiano Okayama form

Fagiano Okayama have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Gamba Osaka won 1, Fagiano Okayama won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Gamba Osaka 2, Fagiano Okayama 2.

Our call

We expect Gamba Osaka to score about 1.5 goals and Fagiano Okayama about 1.5. That points to Fagiano Okayama to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5 at 3.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Gamba Osaka	Okayama
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	8
Draws	7	3
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	29	27
Goals conceded	31	28
Scored per game	1.4	1.4
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	2W 3D 4L	4W 2D 4L
Away record	3W 4D 4L	4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	15%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.72
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.81
Both teams to score	61%	1.63
Gamba Osaka or Draw	62%	1.62
Fagiano Okayama or Draw	64%	1.57
Gamba Osaka to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.13
Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.90
Gamba Osaka clean sheet	22%	4.62
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	23%	4.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

1-28.5%

2-18.3%

0-16.8%

1-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Gamba Osaka to score 1.5 goals and Fagiano Okayama 1.5.

Will both teams score in Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Gamba Osaka last 20 games and 12 of Fagiano Okayama last 20.

How are Gamba Osaka playing?

How are Fagiano Okayama playing?

What happened when Gamba Osaka and Fagiano Okayama last met?

It ended Gamba Osaka 2, Fagiano Okayama 2. In the last 2 meetings Gamba Osaka won 1 and Fagiano Okayama won 0.

What is the best bet for Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gamba Osaka against Okayama. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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