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Predictions › Japan › Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
J1 LeagueSat 24 Oct, 07:00 Japan time

Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga prediction

Suita City Football Stadium

Gamba OsakaHome
1.41 : 1.05
expected goals
Kyoto SangaAway
44%Gamba Osaka
28%Draw
27%Kyoto Sanga
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga is Gamba Osaka to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Gamba Osaka to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Gamba Osaka 1.4, Kyoto Sanga 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Gamba Osaka 44%, the draw 28% and Kyoto Sanga 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Gamba Osaka took 1 point from their last 5 games and Kyoto Sanga took 4 from 5. Kyoto Sanga come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Gamba Osaka won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Kyoto Sanga won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Gamba Osaka score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.5. Kyoto Sanga score 1.1 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Gamba Osaka games and 12 of Kyoto Sanga games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Gamba Osaka won 1 and Kyoto Sanga won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Kyoto Sanga 1, Gamba Osaka 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Gamba Osakarecent form-3%
  • Kyoto Sangarecent form-3%
Gamba Osaka form D L L W LKyoto Sanga form D L W L LHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga: Gamba Osaka shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Gamba Osaka host Kyoto Sanga in the J1 League on Sat 24 Oct, 07:00 at Suita City Football Stadium. Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga is Gamba Osaka to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Gamba Osaka form

Gamba Osaka have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Kyoto Sanga form

Kyoto Sanga have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Gamba Osaka won 1, Kyoto Sanga won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Kyoto Sanga 1, Gamba Osaka 1.

Our call

We expect Gamba Osaka to score about 1.4 goals and Kyoto Sanga about 1.1. That points to Gamba Osaka to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Gamba OsakaKyoto Sanga
Games played2020
Wins45
Draws74
Losses911
Goals scored2623
Goals conceded3038
Scored per game1.31.1
Conceded per game1.51.9
Home record2W 3D 5L3W 1D 6L
Away record2W 4D 4L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets10%10%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.24
Over 3.5 goals23%4.28
Both teams to score50%2.00
Gamba Osaka or Draw73%1.38
Kyoto Sanga or Draw56%1.80
Gamba Osaka to win and Over 2.525%4.05
Kyoto Sanga to win and Over 2.514%6.96
Gamba Osaka clean sheet35%2.86
Kyoto Sanga clean sheet24%4.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
1-011.3%
0-09.3%
2-18.9%
2-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

Our prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga is Gamba Osaka to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Gamba Osaka to score 1.4 goals and Kyoto Sanga 1.1.

Will both teams score in Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Gamba Osaka last 20 games and 12 of Kyoto Sanga last 20.

How are Gamba Osaka playing?

Gamba Osaka have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Kyoto Sanga playing?

Kyoto Sanga have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Gamba Osaka and Kyoto Sanga last met?

It ended Kyoto Sanga 1, Gamba Osaka 1. In the last 2 meetings Gamba Osaka won 1 and Kyoto Sanga won 0.

What is the best bet for Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gamba Osaka against Kyoto Sanga. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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