Predictions › Italy › Genoa vs Fiorentina

Serie ASat 10 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction

Stadio Luigi Ferraris

GenoaHome

1.25 : 1.49

expected goals

FiorentinaAway

31%Genoa

27%Draw

42%Fiorentina

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina is Fiorentina to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Fiorentina to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Genoa 1.3, Fiorentina 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fiorentina to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3.951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Genoa 31%, the draw 27% and Fiorentina 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Fiorentina the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Genoa took 1 point from their last 5 games and Fiorentina took 4 from 5. Fiorentina come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Genoa won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Fiorentina won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Genoa score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Fiorentina score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Genoa games and 10 of Fiorentina games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Genoa won 0 and Fiorentina won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Fiorentina 0, Genoa 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Genoarecent form-3%

Genoa form L W D L LFiorentina form D W W L LHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Genoa vs Fiorentina: Fiorentina shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Genoa host Fiorentina in the Serie A on Sat 10 Oct, 13:00 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Our prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina is Fiorentina to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Genoa form

Genoa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Fiorentina form

Fiorentina have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Genoa won 0, Fiorentina won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fiorentina 0, Genoa 0.

Our call

We expect Genoa to score about 1.3 goals and Fiorentina about 1.5. That points to Fiorentina to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Fiorentina to win and Over 2.5 at 3.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Genoa	Fiorentina
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	8
Draws	4	7
Losses	11	5
Goals scored	17	23
Goals conceded	27	26
Scored per game	0.8	1.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	3W 1D 6L	3W 6D 2L
Away record	2W 3D 5L	5W 1D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Genoa to win	30%	3.33	3.00	-9.8%
A Draw	26%	3.84	3.15	-17.9%
Fiorentina to win	39%	2.56	2.20	-13.9%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.20	1.95	-11.3%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.07	1.74	-15.9%
Genoa +0.5	54%	1.85	1.59	-14.4%
Fiorentina -0.5	40%	2.51	2.10	-16.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.38
Both teams to score	56%	1.78
Genoa or Draw	58%	1.73
Fiorentina or Draw	69%	1.45
Genoa to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.32
Fiorentina to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.84
Genoa clean sheet	22%	4.44
Fiorentina clean sheet	29%	3.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%

1-29.0%

0-18.9%

2-17.5%

1-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Real Madrid Loanee Breaks Lionel Messi Record in Italy

On loan Real Madrid winger Franco Mastantuono became the youngest Argentine to score a hat trick in Europe's top leagues during Fiorentina's win.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Our prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina is Fiorentina to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Genoa to score 1.3 goals and Fiorentina 1.5.

Will both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Genoa last 20 games and 10 of Fiorentina last 20.

How are Genoa playing?

How are Fiorentina playing?

What happened when Genoa and Fiorentina last met?

It ended Fiorentina 0, Genoa 0. In the last 2 meetings Genoa won 0 and Fiorentina won 0.

What is the best bet for Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Genoa against Fiorentina. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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