Predictions › Portugal › Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes

Primeira LigaMon 2 Nov, 20:15 Portugal time

Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes prediction

Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Gil VicenteHome

1.91 : 0.68

expected goals

Vitória de GuimaraesAway

66%Gil Vicente

22%Draw

12%Vitória

Eagle safe pickGil Vicente draw no bet

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Gil Vicente to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Gil Vicente draw no bet at 1.18.

Prediction: Gil Vicente to win
Chance: 66%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Gil Vicente 1.9, Vitória de Guimaraes 0.7
Best bet: Gil Vicente draw no bet at 1.18
Both teams to score: 43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Gil Vicente draw no bet

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Gil Vicente to win and Over 2.5

39% chanceFair price 2.601 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Gil Vicente 66%, the draw 22% and Vitória de Guimaraes 12%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Gil Vicente took 7 points from their last 5 games and Vitória de Guimaraes took 5 from 5. Gil Vicente come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Gil Vicente won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Vitória de Guimaraes won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Gil Vicente score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Vitória de Guimaraes score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Gil Vicente games and 7 of Vitória de Guimaraes games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Gil Vicente won 0 and Vitória de Guimaraes won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Gil Vicente 0, Vitória de Guimaraes 1.
6
The safest bet
Gil Vicente draw no bet has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Gil Vicenterecent form+3%
Vitória recent form-1%
Vitória rest between games-5%

Gil Vicente form W W W D LVitória form D W L D LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes: Gil Vicente are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Gil Vicente host Vitória de Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga on Mon 2 Nov, 20:15 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. Our prediction for Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Gil Vicente to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Gil Vicente draw no bet at 1.18.

Gil Vicente form

Gil Vicente have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Vitória de Guimaraes form

Vitória de Guimaraes have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Gil Vicente won 0, Vitória de Guimaraes won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Gil Vicente 0, Vitória de Guimaraes 1.

Our call

We expect Gil Vicente to score about 1.9 goals and Vitória de Guimaraes about 0.7. That points to Gil Vicente to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Gil Vicente draw no bet at 1.18. Our bold bet is Gil Vicente to win and Over 2.5 at 2.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Gil Vicente	Vitória
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	6	4
Losses	8	11
Goals scored	22	22
Goals conceded	26	27
Scored per game	1.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	4W 2D 4L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	2W 4D 4L	1W 1D 8L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.09
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.82
Both teams to score	43%	2.35
Gil Vicente or Draw	88%	1.13
Vitória de Guimaraes or Draw	34%	2.95
Gil Vicente to win and Over 2.5	39%	2.59
Vitória de Guimaraes to win and Over 2.5	6%	17.80
Gil Vicente clean sheet	51%	1.97
Vitória de Guimaraes clean sheet	15%	6.75

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.8%

2-013.7%

1-110.3%

2-19.3%

3-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Our prediction for Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Gil Vicente to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Gil Vicente draw no bet at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Gil Vicente to score 1.9 goals and Vitória de Guimaraes 0.7.

Will both teams score in Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Gil Vicente last 20 games and 7 of Vitória de Guimaraes last 20.

How are Gil Vicente playing?

How are Vitória de Guimaraes playing?

What happened when Gil Vicente and Vitória de Guimaraes last met?

It ended Gil Vicente 0, Vitória de Guimaraes 1. In the last 2 meetings Gil Vicente won 0 and Vitória de Guimaraes won 1.

What is the best bet for Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Gil Vicente draw no bet at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gil Vicente against Vitória . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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