Predictions › United Kingdom › Gillingham vs Barrow

FA CupSat 7 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Gillingham vs Barrow prediction

Priestfield Stadium

GillinghamHome

1.77 : 1.47

expected goals

BarrowAway

44%Gillingham

24%Draw

32%Barrow

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

2/11

Quick answer

Our prediction for Gillingham vs Barrow is Gillingham to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

Prediction: Gillingham to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Gillingham 1.8, Barrow 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 2/11
Both teams to score: 65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 2/112 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Gillingham to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 9/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Gillingham 44%, the draw 24% and Barrow 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Gillingham took 1 point from their last 2 games and Barrow took 4 from 2. Barrow come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Gillingham score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.5. Barrow score 2.0 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of Gillingham games and 1 of Barrow games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Gillinghamrecent form+1%
Barrowrecent form+4%
Gillinghamrest between games-3%
Barrowrest between games-3%

Gillingham form D D L W WBarrow form D W D W WHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Gillingham vs Barrow: Gillingham shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Gillingham host Barrow in the FA Cup on Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 at Priestfield Stadium. Our prediction for Gillingham vs Barrow is Gillingham to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

Gillingham form

Gillingham have 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 2 games, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 2 results read L, D, newest first.

Barrow form

Barrow have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses in their last 2 games, with 4 goals scored and 2 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses from 2. Their last 2 results read D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Gillingham to score about 1.8 goals and Barrow about 1.5. That points to Gillingham to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11. Our bold bet is Gillingham to win and Over 2.5 at 9/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 2 games in all competitions.

	Gillingham	Barrow
Games played	2	2
Wins	0	1
Draws	1	1
Losses	1	0
Goals scored	2	4
Goals conceded	5	2
Scored per game	1.0	2.0
Conceded per game	2.5	1.0
Home record	0W 0D 1L	n/a
Away record	0W 1D 0L	1W 1D 0L
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	100%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	2/11
Over 2.5 goals	63%	4/7
Over 3.5 goals	41%	6/4
Both teams to score	65%	8/15
Gillingham or Draw	68%	4/9
Barrow or Draw	56%	4/5
Gillingham to win and Over 2.5	32%	85/40
Barrow to win and Over 2.5	22%	7/2
Gillingham clean sheet	23%	10/3
Barrow clean sheet	17%	5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%

2-19.0%

1-27.5%

2-26.6%

1-06.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Gillingham vs Barrow?

Our prediction for Gillingham vs Barrow is Gillingham to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

What is the score prediction for Gillingham vs Barrow?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Gillingham to score 1.8 goals and Barrow 1.5.

Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Barrow?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 1 of Gillingham last 2 games and 1 of Barrow last 2.

How are Gillingham playing?

Gillingham have 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 2 games, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 2 results read L, D, newest first.

How are Barrow playing?

What is the best bet for Gillingham vs Barrow?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/11, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gillingham against Barrow. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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