Predictions › Argentina › Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán

Argentina Liga ProfesionalFri 9 Oct, 21:00 Argentina time

Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán prediction

Juan Carmelo Zerillo (El Bosque)

Gimnasia La PlataHome

1.46 : 1.11

expected goals

Atlético TucumánAway

44%Gimnasia LP

28%Draw

28%Atl Tucumán

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán is Gimnasia La Plata to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Gimnasia La Plata to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 1.5, Atlético Tucumán 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Gimnasia La Plata to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata 44%, the draw 28% and Atlético Tucumán 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Gimnasia La Plata took 8 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Tucumán took 5 from 5. Gimnasia La Plata come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Gimnasia La Plata won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético Tucumán won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Gimnasia La Plata score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Atlético Tucumán score 0.7 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Gimnasia La Plata games and 7 of Atlético Tucumán games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Gimnasia La Plata won 0 and Atlético Tucumán won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Tucumán 1, Gimnasia La Plata 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Gimnasia LPrecent form+1%

Gimnasia LP form D D W W LAtl Tucumán form L W L W DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán: Gimnasia La Plata shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Gimnasia La Plata host Atlético Tucumán in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Fri 9 Oct, 21:00 at Juan Carmelo Zerillo (El Bosque). Our prediction for Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán is Gimnasia La Plata to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Gimnasia La Plata form

Gimnasia La Plata have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Atlético Tucumán form

Atlético Tucumán have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Gimnasia La Plata won 0, Atlético Tucumán won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Tucumán 1, Gimnasia La Plata 0.

Our call

We expect Gimnasia La Plata to score about 1.5 goals and Atlético Tucumán about 1.1. That points to Gimnasia La Plata to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Gimnasia La Plata to win and Over 2.5 at 3.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Gimnasia LP	Atl Tucumán
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	5
Draws	2	7
Losses	7	8
Goals scored	26	14
Goals conceded	26	19
Scored per game	1.3	0.7
Conceded per game	1.3	0.9
Home record	5W 1D 3L	1W 6D 3L
Away record	6W 1D 4L	4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	45%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.91
Both teams to score	52%	1.92
Gimnasia La Plata or Draw	72%	1.39
Atlético Tucumán or Draw	56%	1.80
Gimnasia La Plata to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.89
Atlético Tucumán to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.45
Gimnasia La Plata clean sheet	33%	3.03
Atlético Tucumán clean sheet	23%	4.28

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

1-010.5%

2-19.0%

0-08.5%

2-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán?

What is the score prediction for Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Gimnasia La Plata to score 1.5 goals and Atlético Tucumán 1.1.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Gimnasia La Plata last 20 games and 8 of Atlético Tucumán last 20.

How are Gimnasia La Plata playing?

How are Atlético Tucumán playing?

What happened when Gimnasia La Plata and Atlético Tucumán last met?

It ended Atlético Tucumán 1, Gimnasia La Plata 0. In the last 1 meeting Gimnasia La Plata won 0 and Atlético Tucumán won 1.

What is the best bet for Gimnasia La Plata vs Atlético Tucumán?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gimnasia LP against Atl Tucumán. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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