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Predictions › Argentina › Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín)
Argentina Liga ProfesionalFri 23 Oct, 22:00 Argentina time

Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín) prediction

Juan Carmelo Zerillo (El Bosque)

Gimnasia La PlataHome
1.86 : 1.41
expected goals
Sarmiento (Junín)Away
48%Gimnasia LP
24%Draw
29%Sarmiento (J)
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín) is Gimnasia La Plata to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Gimnasia La Plata to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Gimnasia La Plata 1.9, Sarmiento (Junín) 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Gimnasia La Plata to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Gimnasia La Plata 48%, the draw 24% and Sarmiento (Junín) 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Gimnasia La Plata took 7 points from their last 5 games and Sarmiento (Junín) took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Gimnasia La Plata won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Sarmiento (Junín) won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Gimnasia La Plata score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.2. Sarmiento (Junín) score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Gimnasia La Plata games and 11 of Sarmiento (Junín) games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Gimnasia La Plata won 2 and Sarmiento (Junín) won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sarmiento (Junín) 1, Gimnasia La Plata 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Gimnasia LPrecent form+1%
  • Sarmiento (J)recent form-1%
Gimnasia LP form D D D D WSarmiento (J) form D L D W LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín): Gimnasia La Plata are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Gimnasia La Plata host Sarmiento (Junín) in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Fri 23 Oct, 22:00 at Juan Carmelo Zerillo (El Bosque). Our prediction for Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín) is Gimnasia La Plata to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Gimnasia La Plata form

Gimnasia La Plata have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, D, W, newest first.

Sarmiento (Junín) form

Sarmiento (Junín) have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Gimnasia La Plata won 2, Sarmiento (Junín) won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sarmiento (Junín) 1, Gimnasia La Plata 2.

Our call

We expect Gimnasia La Plata to score about 1.9 goals and Sarmiento (Junín) about 1.4. That points to Gimnasia La Plata to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Gimnasia La Plata to win and Over 2.5 at 3.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Gimnasia LPSarmiento (J)
Games played2020
Wins1010
Draws42
Losses68
Goals scored2428
Goals conceded2428
Scored per game1.21.4
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record5W 2D 2L6W 2D 2L
Away record5W 2D 4L4W 0D 6L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals63%1.58
Over 3.5 goals41%2.43
Both teams to score64%1.55
Gimnasia La Plata or Draw71%1.40
Sarmiento (Junín) or Draw52%1.91
Gimnasia La Plata to win and Over 2.534%2.90
Sarmiento (Junín) to win and Over 2.520%4.98
Gimnasia La Plata clean sheet24%4.08
Sarmiento (Junín) clean sheet16%6.40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%
2-19.3%
1-27.0%
2-06.6%
2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

Our prediction for Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín) is Gimnasia La Plata to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Gimnasia La Plata to score 1.9 goals and Sarmiento (Junín) 1.4.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Gimnasia La Plata last 20 games and 11 of Sarmiento (Junín) last 20.

How are Gimnasia La Plata playing?

Gimnasia La Plata have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Sarmiento (Junín) playing?

Sarmiento (Junín) have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Gimnasia La Plata and Sarmiento (Junín) last met?

It ended Sarmiento (Junín) 1, Gimnasia La Plata 2. In the last 2 meetings Gimnasia La Plata won 2 and Sarmiento (Junín) won 0.

What is the best bet for Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento (Junín)?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gimnasia LP against Sarmiento (J). A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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