Predictions › Spain › Girona vs Almería

LaLiga 2Sun 8 Nov, 15:15 Spain time

Girona vs Almería prediction

Estadi Montilivi

GironaHome

1.74 : 1.08

expected goals

AlmeríaAway

52%Girona

25%Draw

23%Almería

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Girona vs Almería is Girona to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Girona to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Girona 1.7, Almería 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Girona to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.061 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Girona 52%, the draw 25% and Almería 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Girona took 11 points from their last 5 games and Almería took 13 from 5. Almería come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Girona won 5 of their last 12 games at home. Almería won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Girona score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Almería score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Girona games and 11 of Almería games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Gironarecent form+3%
Almeríarecent form+4%

Girona form D W W D DAlmería form D D W W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Girona vs Almería: Girona are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Girona host Almería in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 8 Nov, 15:15 at Estadi Montilivi. Our prediction for Girona vs Almería is Girona to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Girona form

Girona have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Almería form

Almería have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Girona to score about 1.7 goals and Almería about 1.1. That points to Girona to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Girona to win and Over 2.5 at 3.06.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Girona	Almería
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	11
Draws	7	4
Losses	6	5
Goals scored	30	34
Goals conceded	21	21
Scored per game	1.5	1.7
Conceded per game	1.1	1.1
Home record	5W 4D 3L	8W 1D 2L
Away record	2W 3D 3L	3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	40%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.87
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.20
Both teams to score	55%	1.81
Girona or Draw	77%	1.30
Almería or Draw	48%	2.09
Girona to win and Over 2.5	33%	2.99
Almería to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.37
Girona clean sheet	34%	2.94
Almería clean sheet	18%	5.70

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

2-19.7%

1-09.7%

2-09.0%

0-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Girona vs Almería?

Our prediction for Girona vs Almería is Girona to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Girona vs Almería?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Girona to score 1.7 goals and Almería 1.1.

Will both teams score in Girona vs Almería?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Girona last 20 games and 10 of Almería last 20.

How are Girona playing?

How are Almería playing?

What is the best bet for Girona vs Almería?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Girona against Almería. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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