Predictions › Netherlands › Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam

EredivisieSat 10 Oct, 14:30 Netherlands time

Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction

De Adelaarshorst

Go Ahead EaglesHome

2.06 : 1.14

expected goals

Sparta RotterdamAway

58%Go Ahead Eagles

22%Draw

20%Sparta

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam is Go Ahead Eagles to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Go Ahead Eagles to win
Chance: 58%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Go Ahead Eagles 2.1, Sparta Rotterdam 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Go Ahead Eagles to win and Over 2.5

39% chanceFair price 2.581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Go Ahead Eagles 58%, the draw 22% and Sparta Rotterdam 20%. The bookmakers agree and make Go Ahead Eagles the favourite at 1.74.
2
Recent form
Go Ahead Eagles took 6 points from their last 5 games and Sparta Rotterdam took 2 from 5. Go Ahead Eagles come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Go Ahead Eagles won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Go Ahead Eagles score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Sparta Rotterdam score 1.1 and let in 2.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Go Ahead Eagles games and 14 of Sparta Rotterdam games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Go Ahead Eagles won 0 and Sparta Rotterdam won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Sparta Rotterdam 2, Go Ahead Eagles 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Spartarecent form-4%

Go Ahead Eagles form D D D L WSparta form L L D L DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam: Go Ahead Eagles are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Go Ahead Eagles host Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie on Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 at De Adelaarshorst. Our prediction for Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam is Go Ahead Eagles to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Go Ahead Eagles form

Go Ahead Eagles have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Sparta Rotterdam form

Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 45 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Go Ahead Eagles won 0, Sparta Rotterdam won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Sparta Rotterdam 2, Go Ahead Eagles 2.

Our call

We expect Go Ahead Eagles to score about 2.1 goals and Sparta Rotterdam about 1.1. That points to Go Ahead Eagles to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Go Ahead Eagles to win and Over 2.5 at 2.58.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Go Ahead Eagles	Sparta
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	2
Draws	7	7
Losses	7	11
Goals scored	38	23
Goals conceded	32	45
Scored per game	1.9	1.1
Conceded per game	1.6	2.3
Home record	5W 2D 3L	1W 5D 4L
Away record	1W 5D 4L	1W 2D 7L
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Go Ahead Eagles to win	55%	1.83	1.74	-4.9%
A Draw	22%	4.62	3.90	-15.5%
Sparta Rotterdam to win	20%	5.09	4.00	-21.4%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.40	1.95	-18.5%
Under 3.5 goals	52%	1.92	1.71	-10.8%
Go Ahead Eagles -0.5	52%	1.93	1.67	-13.5%
Sparta Rotterdam +0.5	42%	2.39	1.95	-18.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.20
Over 2.5 goals	62%	1.61
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.50
Both teams to score	60%	1.66
Go Ahead Eagles or Draw	80%	1.25
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	42%	2.38
Go Ahead Eagles to win and Over 2.5	42%	2.40
Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.55
Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet	32%	3.14
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	13%	7.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.1%

2-19.9%

2-08.6%

1-07.8%

3-16.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our prediction for Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam is Go Ahead Eagles to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Go Ahead Eagles to score 2.1 goals and Sparta Rotterdam 1.1.

Will both teams score in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Go Ahead Eagles last 20 games and 13 of Sparta Rotterdam last 20.

How are Go Ahead Eagles playing?

How are Sparta Rotterdam playing?

What happened when Go Ahead Eagles and Sparta Rotterdam last met?

It ended Sparta Rotterdam 2, Go Ahead Eagles 2. In the last 1 meeting Go Ahead Eagles won 0 and Sparta Rotterdam won 0.

What is the best bet for Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Go Ahead Eagles against Sparta. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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