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Predictions › Austria › Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
Austrian BundesligaFri 30 Oct, 18:30 Austria time

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg prediction

Merkur Arena

Grazer AKHome
1.23 : 0.98
expected goals
TSV HartbergAway
41%Grazer
30%Draw
29%TSV Hartberg
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is Grazer AK to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Grazer AK to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Grazer AK 1.2, TSV Hartberg 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Grazer AK 41%, the draw 30% and TSV Hartberg 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Grazer AK took 6 points from their last 5 games and TSV Hartberg took 8 from 5. TSV Hartberg come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Grazer AK won 4 of their last 9 games at home. TSV Hartberg won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Grazer AK score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. TSV Hartberg score 1.4 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Grazer AK games and 11 of TSV Hartberg games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Grazer AK won 0 and TSV Hartberg won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended TSV Hartberg 1, Grazer AK 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Grazerrecent form+1%
  • TSV Hartbergrecent form+3%
  • Grazerrest between games-2%
Grazer form D D D W DTSV Hartberg form D W D D WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: Grazer AK shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Grazer AK host TSV Hartberg in the Austrian Bundesliga on Fri 30 Oct, 18:30 at Merkur Arena. Our prediction for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is Grazer AK to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Grazer AK form

Grazer AK have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, D, newest first.

TSV Hartberg form

TSV Hartberg have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Grazer AK won 0, TSV Hartberg won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished TSV Hartberg 1, Grazer AK 0.

Our call

We expect Grazer AK to score about 1.2 goals and TSV Hartberg about 1.0. That points to Grazer AK to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GrazerTSV Hartberg
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws56
Losses89
Goals scored2727
Goals conceded3336
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.61.8
Home record4W 5D 0L2W 3D 6L
Away record3W 0D 8L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.53
Over 2.5 goals38%2.64
Over 3.5 goals18%5.49
Both teams to score45%2.22
Grazer AK or Draw71%1.40
TSV Hartberg or Draw59%1.70
Grazer AK to win and Over 2.520%4.98
TSV Hartberg to win and Over 2.513%7.51
Grazer AK clean sheet38%2.66
TSV Hartberg clean sheet29%3.42

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-012.7%
0-011.8%
0-110.0%
2-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?

Our prediction for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is Grazer AK to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Grazer AK to score 1.2 goals and TSV Hartberg 1.0.

Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Grazer AK last 20 games and 12 of TSV Hartberg last 20.

How are Grazer AK playing?

Grazer AK have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, D, newest first.

How are TSV Hartberg playing?

TSV Hartberg have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg last met?

It ended TSV Hartberg 1, Grazer AK 0. In the last 2 meetings Grazer AK won 0 and TSV Hartberg won 1.

What is the best bet for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Grazer against TSV Hartberg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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