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Predictions › Brazil › Grêmio vs Athletico-PR
BrasileiraoFri 30 Oct, 00:30 Brazil time

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR prediction

Arena do Grêmio

GrêmioHome
1.38 : 1.76
expected goals
Athletico-PRAway
30%Grêmio
25%Draw
46%Athletico-PR
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Athletico-PR to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Grêmio 1.4, Athletico-PR 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Grêmio 30%, the draw 25% and Athletico-PR 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Grêmio took 3 points from their last 5 games and Athletico-PR took 8 from 5. Athletico-PR come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Grêmio won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Athletico-PR won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Grêmio score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.5. Athletico-PR score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Grêmio games and 10 of Athletico-PR games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Grêmio won 0 and Athletico-PR won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Athletico-PR 0, Grêmio 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Grêmiorecent form-1%
  • Athletico-PRrecent form+3%
  • Grêmiorest between games-5%
  • Athletico-PRrest between games-2%
Grêmio form D D D D LAthletico-PR form D W D W DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR: Athletico-PR are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Grêmio host Athletico-PR in the Brasileirao on Fri 30 Oct, 00:30 at Arena do Grêmio. Our prediction for Grêmio vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Grêmio won 0, Athletico-PR won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Athletico-PR 0, Grêmio 0.

Our call

We expect Grêmio to score about 1.4 goals and Athletico-PR about 1.8. That points to Athletico-PR to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5 at 3.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GrêmioAthletico-PR
Games played2020
Wins49
Draws67
Losses104
Goals scored2032
Goals conceded3024
Scored per game1.01.6
Conceded per game1.51.2
Home record4W 3D 4L4W 5D 1L
Away record0W 3D 6L5W 2D 3L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.65
Over 3.5 goals38%2.60
Both teams to score63%1.60
Grêmio or Draw54%1.84
Athletico-PR or Draw70%1.42
Grêmio to win and Over 2.520%4.94
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.532%3.11
Grêmio clean sheet17%5.80
Athletico-PR clean sheet25%3.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%
1-29.2%
2-17.3%
0-17.0%
0-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Grêmio vs Athletico-PR?

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Grêmio vs Athletico-PR?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Grêmio to score 1.4 goals and Athletico-PR 1.8.

Will both teams score in Grêmio vs Athletico-PR?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Grêmio last 20 games and 12 of Athletico-PR last 20.

How are Grêmio playing?

Grêmio have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Athletico-PR playing?

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Grêmio and Athletico-PR last met?

It ended Athletico-PR 0, Grêmio 0. In the last 1 meeting Grêmio won 0 and Athletico-PR won 0.

What is the best bet for Grêmio vs Athletico-PR?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Grêmio against Athletico-PR. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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