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Predictions › Brazil › Grêmio vs Cruzeiro
BrasileiraoSun 18 Oct, 19:00 Brazil time

Grêmio vs Cruzeiro prediction

Arena do Grêmio

GrêmioHome
1.37 : 1.21
expected goals
CruzeiroAway
40%Grêmio
28%Draw
32%Cruzeiro
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro is Grêmio to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction
Grêmio to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Grêmio 1.4, Cruzeiro 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Grêmio 40%, the draw 28% and Cruzeiro 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Grêmio took 2 points from their last 5 games and Cruzeiro took 9 from 5. Cruzeiro come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Grêmio won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Cruzeiro won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Grêmio score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Cruzeiro score 1.6 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Grêmio games and 12 of Cruzeiro games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Grêmio won 0 and Cruzeiro won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cruzeiro 2, Grêmio 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Grêmiorecent form-4%
  • Grêmiorest between games-5%
  • Cruzeirorest between games-5%
Grêmio form D D L L LCruzeiro form D W L W LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Grêmio vs Cruzeiro: Grêmio shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Grêmio host Cruzeiro in the Brasileirao on Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 at Arena do Grêmio. Our prediction for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro is Grêmio to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Cruzeiro form

Cruzeiro have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Grêmio won 0, Cruzeiro won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cruzeiro 2, Grêmio 0.

Our call

We expect Grêmio to score about 1.4 goals and Cruzeiro about 1.2. That points to Grêmio to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GrêmioCruzeiro
Games played2020
Wins411
Draws75
Losses94
Goals scored1733
Goals conceded2520
Scored per game0.81.6
Conceded per game1.31.0
Home record4W 3D 3L6W 2D 1L
Away record0W 4D 6L5W 3D 3L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals40%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.10
Over 3.5 goals26%3.85
Both teams to score53%1.88
Grêmio or Draw68%1.47
Cruzeiro or Draw60%1.67
Grêmio to win and Over 2.523%4.31
Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.518%5.49
Grêmio clean sheet30%3.34
Cruzeiro clean sheet25%3.95

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-09.7%
2-18.6%
0-18.4%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro is Grêmio to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Grêmio to score 1.4 goals and Cruzeiro 1.2.

Will both teams score in Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Grêmio last 20 games and 15 of Cruzeiro last 20.

How are Grêmio playing?

Grêmio have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Cruzeiro playing?

Cruzeiro have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Grêmio and Cruzeiro last met?

It ended Cruzeiro 2, Grêmio 0. In the last 2 meetings Grêmio won 0 and Cruzeiro won 2.

What is the best bet for Grêmio vs Cruzeiro?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Grêmio against Cruzeiro. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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