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Predictions › Brazil › Grêmio vs Internacional
BrasileiraoSun 11 Oct, 20:30 Brazil time

Grêmio vs Internacional prediction

Arena do Grêmio

GrêmioHome
1.59 : 0.93
expected goals
InternacionalAway
52%Grêmio
27%Draw
21%Internacional
Eagle safe pickGrêmio or Draw
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Internacional is Grêmio to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Grêmio or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction
Grêmio to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Grêmio 1.6, Internacional 0.9
Best bet
Grêmio or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Grêmio or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Grêmio to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Grêmio 52%, the draw 27% and Internacional 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Grêmio took 4 points from their last 5 games and Internacional took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Grêmio won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Internacional won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Grêmio score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Internacional score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Grêmio games and 9 of Internacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Grêmio won 1 and Internacional won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Internacional 0, Grêmio 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Grêmio or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Grêmiorecent form-3%
  • Internacionalrecent form-4%
Grêmio form D L L L WInternacional form L W L L LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Grêmio vs Internacional: Grêmio are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Grêmio host Internacional in the Brasileirao on Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 at Arena do Grêmio. Our prediction for Grêmio vs Internacional is Grêmio to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Grêmio or Draw at 1.30.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Internacional form

Internacional have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Grêmio won 1, Internacional won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Internacional 0, Grêmio 0.

Our call

We expect Grêmio to score about 1.6 goals and Internacional about 0.9. That points to Grêmio to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Grêmio or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is Grêmio to win and Over 2.5 at 3.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GrêmioInternacional
Games played2020
Wins44
Draws68
Losses108
Goals scored1723
Goals conceded2627
Scored per game0.81.1
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record4W 3D 3L2W 5D 3L
Away record0W 3D 7L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.17
Over 3.5 goals25%4.05
Both teams to score49%2.05
Grêmio or Draw79%1.27
Internacional or Draw48%2.10
Grêmio to win and Over 2.530%3.34
Internacional to win and Over 2.511%9.10
Grêmio clean sheet40%2.52
Internacional clean sheet20%4.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%
1-012.1%
2-010.2%
2-19.5%
0-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Grêmio vs Internacional?

Our prediction for Grêmio vs Internacional is Grêmio to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Grêmio or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Grêmio vs Internacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Grêmio to score 1.6 goals and Internacional 0.9.

Will both teams score in Grêmio vs Internacional?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Grêmio last 20 games and 12 of Internacional last 20.

How are Grêmio playing?

Grêmio have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Internacional playing?

Internacional have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Grêmio and Internacional last met?

It ended Internacional 0, Grêmio 0. In the last 2 meetings Grêmio won 1 and Internacional won 0.

What is the best bet for Grêmio vs Internacional?

Grêmio or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Grêmio against Internacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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