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Predictions › Mexico › Guadalajara vs Atlante
Liga MXSun 1 Nov, 01:07 Mexico time

Guadalajara vs Atlante prediction

Estadio Akron

GuadalajaraHome
1.55 : 0.74
expected goals
AtlanteAway
56%Guadalajara
27%Draw
17%Atlante
Eagle safe pickGuadalajara or Draw
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Atlante is Guadalajara to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction
Guadalajara to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Guadalajara 1.6, Atlante 0.7
Best bet
Guadalajara or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Guadalajara or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Guadalajara 56%, the draw 27% and Atlante 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Guadalajara took 6 points from their last 5 games and Atlante took 7 from 5. Atlante come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Guadalajara won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Atlante won 2 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Guadalajara score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.9. Atlante score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Guadalajara games and 5 of Atlante games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Guadalajara or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Guadalajararecent form-1%
  • Atlanterecent form-1%
  • Guadalajararest between games-5%
  • Atlanterest between games-5%
Guadalajara form D D D L DAtlante form D L L W DHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Guadalajara vs Atlante: Guadalajara are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Guadalajara host Atlante in the Liga MX on Sun 1 Nov, 01:07 at Estadio Akron. Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Atlante is Guadalajara to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.22.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Atlante form

Atlante have 3 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 13 games, with 14 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Guadalajara to score about 1.6 goals and Atlante about 0.7. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5 at 3.61.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GuadalajaraAtlante
Games played2013
Wins83
Draws85
Losses45
Goals scored3114
Goals conceded1919
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game0.91.5
Home record6W 2D 3L1W 3D 2L
Away record2W 6D 1L2W 2D 3L
Clean sheets45%15%
Both teams scored45%62%
Over 2.5 goals40%38%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.49
Over 2.5 goals40%2.50
Over 3.5 goals20%5.06
Both teams to score42%2.39
Guadalajara or Draw83%1.21
Atlante or Draw44%2.27
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.529%3.48
Atlante to win and Over 2.58%13.29
Guadalajara clean sheet48%2.10
Atlante clean sheet21%4.69

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.0%
1-112.3%
2-012.2%
0-010.9%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Guadalajara vs Atlante?

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Atlante is Guadalajara to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Guadalajara vs Atlante?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Guadalajara to score 1.6 goals and Atlante 0.7.

Will both teams score in Guadalajara vs Atlante?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Guadalajara last 20 games and 8 of Atlante last 13.

How are Guadalajara playing?

Guadalajara have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Atlante playing?

Atlante have 3 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 13 games, with 14 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Guadalajara vs Atlante?

Guadalajara or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Guadalajara against Atlante. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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