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Predictions › Mexico › Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul
Liga MXSun 22 Nov, 23:07 Mexico time

Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul prediction

Estadio Akron

GuadalajaraHome
1.75 : 1.44
expected goals
Cruz AzulAway
44%Guadalajara
24%Draw
31%Cruz Azul
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul is Guadalajara to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction
Guadalajara to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Guadalajara 1.8, Cruz Azul 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.211 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Guadalajara 44%, the draw 24% and Cruz Azul 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Guadalajara took 11 points from their last 5 games and Cruz Azul took 15 from 5. Cruz Azul come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Guadalajara won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Cruz Azul won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Guadalajara score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Cruz Azul score 2.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Guadalajara games and 16 of Cruz Azul games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Guadalajara won 0 and Cruz Azul won 3 with 2 draws. The last one ended Guadalajara 1, Cruz Azul 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Guadalajararecent form+4%
  • Cruz Azulrecent form+7%
Guadalajara form D W W W DCruz Azul form W W W W WHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul: Guadalajara shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Guadalajara host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX on Sun 22 Nov, 23:07 at Estadio Akron. Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul is Guadalajara to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Cruz Azul form

Cruz Azul have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Guadalajara won 0, Cruz Azul won 3 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Guadalajara 1, Cruz Azul 2.

Our call

We expect Guadalajara to score about 1.8 goals and Cruz Azul about 1.4. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5 at 3.21.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GuadalajaraCruz Azul
Games played2020
Wins912
Draws74
Losses44
Goals scored3243
Goals conceded2230
Scored per game1.62.1
Conceded per game1.11.5
Home record6W 1D 3L5W 3D 2L
Away record3W 6D 1L7W 1D 2L
Clean sheets35%15%
Both teams scored55%75%
Over 2.5 goals40%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.61
Over 3.5 goals40%2.52
Both teams to score64%1.57
Guadalajara or Draw69%1.45
Cruz Azul or Draw56%1.80
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.532%3.17
Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.522%4.61
Guadalajara clean sheet24%4.24
Cruz Azul clean sheet17%5.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%
2-19.1%
1-27.5%
2-26.5%
1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul is Guadalajara to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Guadalajara to score 1.8 goals and Cruz Azul 1.4.

Will both teams score in Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Guadalajara last 20 games and 15 of Cruz Azul last 20.

How are Guadalajara playing?

Guadalajara have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Cruz Azul playing?

Cruz Azul have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Guadalajara and Cruz Azul last met?

It ended Guadalajara 1, Cruz Azul 2. In the last 5 meetings Guadalajara won 0 and Cruz Azul won 3.

What is the best bet for Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Guadalajara against Cruz Azul. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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