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Predictions › Mexico › Guadalajara vs Necaxa
Liga MXWed 21 Oct, 00:07 Mexico time

Guadalajara vs Necaxa prediction

Estadio Akron

GuadalajaraHome
2.33 : 0.90
expected goals
NecaxaAway
69%Guadalajara
19%Draw
12%Necaxa
Eagle safe pickGuadalajara or Draw
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Necaxa is Guadalajara to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.17.

Prediction
Guadalajara to win
Chance
69%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Guadalajara 2.3, Necaxa 0.9
Best bet
Guadalajara or Draw at 1.17
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Guadalajara or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guadalajara to win and both score
31% chanceFair price 3.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Guadalajara 69%, the draw 19% and Necaxa 12%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Guadalajara took 8 points from their last 5 games and Necaxa took 1 from 5. Guadalajara come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Guadalajara won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Necaxa won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Guadalajara score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Necaxa score 1.1 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Guadalajara games and 13 of Necaxa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Guadalajara won 1 and Necaxa won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Necaxa 0, Guadalajara 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Guadalajara or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Guadalajararecent form+1%
  • Necaxarecent form-6%
  • Guadalajararest between games-5%
Guadalajara form D L D W WNecaxa form L L L D LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Guadalajara vs Necaxa: Guadalajara are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Guadalajara host Necaxa in the Liga MX on Wed 21 Oct, 00:07 at Estadio Akron. Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Necaxa is Guadalajara to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.17.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Necaxa form

Necaxa have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Guadalajara won 1, Necaxa won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Necaxa 0, Guadalajara 0.

Our call

We expect Guadalajara to score about 2.3 goals and Necaxa about 0.9. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.17. Our bold bet is Guadalajara to win and both score at 3.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GuadalajaraNecaxa
Games played2020
Wins74
Draws85
Losses511
Goals scored3222
Goals conceded2434
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game1.21.7
Home record5W 2D 3L4W 2D 5L
Away record2W 6D 2L0W 3D 6L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals63%1.60
Over 3.5 goals40%2.47
Both teams to score54%1.85
Guadalajara or Draw88%1.14
Necaxa or Draw31%3.22
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.549%2.02
Necaxa to win and Over 2.58%13.00
Guadalajara clean sheet41%2.45
Necaxa clean sheet10%10.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.8%
2-19.7%
1-18.8%
1-08.7%
3-08.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Necaxa is Guadalajara to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-1. We expect Guadalajara to score 2.3 goals and Necaxa 0.9.

Will both teams score in Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Guadalajara last 20 games and 15 of Necaxa last 20.

How are Guadalajara playing?

Guadalajara have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Necaxa playing?

Necaxa have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Guadalajara and Necaxa last met?

It ended Necaxa 0, Guadalajara 0. In the last 2 meetings Guadalajara won 1 and Necaxa won 0.

What is the best bet for Guadalajara vs Necaxa?

Guadalajara or Draw at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Guadalajara against Necaxa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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