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Predictions › Mexico › Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL
Liga MXSat 17 Oct, 23:07 Mexico time

Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL prediction

Estadio Akron

GuadalajaraHome
1.79 : 0.75
expected goals
Tigres UANLAway
62%Guadalajara
24%Draw
14%Tigres
Eagle safe pickGuadalajara or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL is Guadalajara to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Guadalajara to win
Chance
62%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Guadalajara 1.8, Tigres UANL 0.8
Best bet
Guadalajara or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Guadalajara or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Guadalajara 62%, the draw 24% and Tigres UANL 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Guadalajara took 8 points from their last 5 games and Tigres UANL took 6 from 5. Guadalajara come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Guadalajara won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Tigres UANL won 1 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Guadalajara score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.3. Tigres UANL score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Guadalajara games and 8 of Tigres UANL games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Guadalajara won 1 and Tigres UANL won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Guadalajara 2, Tigres UANL 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Guadalajara or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Guadalajararecent form+1%
Guadalajara form L D W W DTigres form W L D D DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL: Guadalajara are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Guadalajara host Tigres UANL in the Liga MX on Sat 17 Oct, 23:07 at Estadio Akron. Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL is Guadalajara to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.21.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Tigres UANL form

Tigres UANL have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Guadalajara won 1, Tigres UANL won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Guadalajara 2, Tigres UANL 0.

Our call

We expect Guadalajara to score about 1.8 goals and Tigres UANL about 0.8. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5 at 2.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GuadalajaraTigres
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws77
Losses56
Goals scored3427
Goals conceded2523
Scored per game1.71.4
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record5W 2D 3L6W 2D 0L
Away record3W 5D 2L1W 5D 6L
Clean sheets40%35%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals47%2.15
Over 3.5 goals25%4.00
Both teams to score44%2.25
Guadalajara or Draw86%1.17
Tigres UANL or Draw38%2.61
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.535%2.82
Tigres UANL to win and Over 2.57%14.29
Guadalajara clean sheet47%2.11
Tigres UANL clean sheet17%5.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.5%
2-012.7%
1-111.2%
2-19.5%
0-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?

Our prediction for Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL is Guadalajara to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Guadalajara or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Guadalajara to score 1.8 goals and Tigres UANL 0.8.

Will both teams score in Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Guadalajara last 20 games and 11 of Tigres UANL last 20.

How are Guadalajara playing?

Guadalajara have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Tigres UANL playing?

Tigres UANL have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Guadalajara and Tigres UANL last met?

It ended Guadalajara 2, Tigres UANL 0. In the last 4 meetings Guadalajara won 1 and Tigres UANL won 2.

What is the best bet for Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?

Guadalajara or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Guadalajara against Tigres. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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