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Predictions › France › Guingamp vs Pau
Ligue 2Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 France time

Guingamp vs Pau prediction

Stade Municipal de Roudourou

GuingampHome
1.63 : 1.36
expected goals
PauAway
43%Guingamp
25%Draw
31%Pau
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Guingamp vs Pau is Guingamp to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Guingamp to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Guingamp 1.6, Pau 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guingamp to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Guingamp 43%, the draw 25% and Pau 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Guingamp took 5 points from their last 5 games and Pau took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Guingamp won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Pau won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Guingamp score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Pau score 1.2 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Guingamp games and 11 of Pau games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Guingamp won 0 and Pau won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Pau 2, Guingamp 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Guingamprecent form-1%
  • Paurecent form-1%
Guingamp form L W D D LPau form W L D D LHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Guingamp vs Pau: Guingamp shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Guingamp host Pau in the Ligue 2 on Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 at Stade Municipal de Roudourou. Our prediction for Guingamp vs Pau is Guingamp to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Guingamp form

Guingamp have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Pau form

Pau have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Guingamp won 0, Pau won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Pau 2, Guingamp 1.

Our call

We expect Guingamp to score about 1.6 goals and Pau about 1.4. That points to Guingamp to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Guingamp to win and Over 2.5 at 3.48.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GuingampPau
Games played2020
Wins36
Draws74
Losses1010
Goals scored1924
Goals conceded2835
Scored per game0.91.2
Conceded per game1.41.8
Home record3W 3D 4L2W 3D 5L
Away record0W 4D 6L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored55%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.74
Over 3.5 goals35%2.86
Both teams to score60%1.66
Guingamp or Draw69%1.45
Pau or Draw57%1.76
Guingamp to win and Over 2.529%3.45
Pau to win and Over 2.520%4.89
Guingamp clean sheet26%3.88
Pau clean sheet20%5.10

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
2-19.1%
1-27.6%
1-07.6%
2-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Guingamp vs Pau?

Our prediction for Guingamp vs Pau is Guingamp to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Guingamp vs Pau?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Guingamp to score 1.6 goals and Pau 1.4.

Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Pau?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Guingamp last 20 games and 9 of Pau last 20.

How are Guingamp playing?

Guingamp have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Pau playing?

Pau have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Guingamp and Pau last met?

It ended Pau 2, Guingamp 1. In the last 2 meetings Guingamp won 0 and Pau won 1.

What is the best bet for Guingamp vs Pau?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Guingamp against Pau. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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