Predictions › Germany › Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

BundesligaFri 6 Nov, 19:30 Germany time

Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction

Volksparkstadion

Hamburg SVHome

1.82 : 1.17

expected goals

Borussia MönchengladbachAway

52%Hamburg

24%Draw

24%Gladbach

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is Hamburg SV to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Hamburg SV to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Hamburg SV 1.8, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Hamburg SV to win and Over 2.5

34% chanceFair price 2.921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Hamburg SV 52%, the draw 24% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Hamburg SV took 9 points from their last 5 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach took 3 from 5. Hamburg SV come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Hamburg SV won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Hamburg SV score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. Borussia Mönchengladbach score 1.4 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Hamburg SV games and 14 of Borussia Mönchengladbach games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Hamburg SV won 0 and Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Hamburg SV 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Hamburgrecent form+3%
Gladbachrecent form-3%

Hamburg form D L W W WGladbach form D W L L LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: Hamburg SV are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Hamburg SV host Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga on Fri 6 Nov, 19:30 at Volksparkstadion. Our prediction for Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is Hamburg SV to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Hamburg SV form

Hamburg SV have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Borussia Mönchengladbach form

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Hamburg SV won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Hamburg SV 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.

Our call

We expect Hamburg SV to score about 1.8 goals and Borussia Mönchengladbach about 1.2. That points to Hamburg SV to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Hamburg SV to win and Over 2.5 at 2.92.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Hamburg	Gladbach
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	4	4
Losses	10	11
Goals scored	22	28
Goals conceded	39	41
Scored per game	1.1	1.4
Conceded per game	1.9	2.0
Home record	3W 2D 4L	4W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 2D 6L	1W 2D 8L
Clean sheets	5%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.74
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.85
Both teams to score	58%	1.71
Hamburg SV or Draw	76%	1.31
Borussia Mönchengladbach or Draw	48%	2.08
Hamburg SV to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.85
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.61
Hamburg SV clean sheet	31%	3.23
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	16%	6.18

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

2-19.7%

1-08.5%

2-08.3%

1-26.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our prediction for Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is Hamburg SV to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Hamburg SV to score 1.8 goals and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.2.

Will both teams score in Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Hamburg SV last 20 games and 11 of Borussia Mönchengladbach last 20.

How are Hamburg SV playing?

How are Borussia Mönchengladbach playing?

What happened when Hamburg SV and Borussia Mönchengladbach last met?

It ended Hamburg SV 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0. In the last 1 meeting Hamburg SV won 0 and Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0.

What is the best bet for Hamburg SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hamburg against Gladbach. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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