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Predictions › Germany › Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart
BundesligaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction

Volksparkstadion

Hamburg SVHome
1.82 : 2.18
expected goals
VfB StuttgartAway
32%Hamburg
21%Draw
46%Stuttgart
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
VfB Stuttgart to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Hamburg SV 1.8, VfB Stuttgart 2.2
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
75%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Hamburg SV 32%, the draw 21% and VfB Stuttgart 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Hamburg SV took 4 points from their last 5 games and VfB Stuttgart took 6 from 5. VfB Stuttgart come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Hamburg SV won 3 of their last 10 games at home. VfB Stuttgart won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Hamburg SV score 1.3 goals a game and let in 2.0. VfB Stuttgart score 2.0 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Hamburg SV games and 14 of VfB Stuttgart games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Hamburg SV won 1 and VfB Stuttgart won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended VfB Stuttgart 4, Hamburg SV 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hamburgrecent form-1%
  • Stuttgartrecent form-1%
Hamburg form W L L L WStuttgart form L L W W LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Hamburg SV host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 at Volksparkstadion. Our prediction for Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32.

Hamburg SV form

Hamburg SV have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

VfB Stuttgart form

VfB Stuttgart have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Hamburg SV won 1, VfB Stuttgart won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished VfB Stuttgart 4, Hamburg SV 0.

Our call

We expect Hamburg SV to score about 1.8 goals and VfB Stuttgart about 2.2. That points to VfB Stuttgart to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5 at 2.76.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HamburgStuttgart
Games played2020
Wins67
Draws55
Losses98
Goals scored2540
Goals conceded4035
Scored per game1.32.0
Conceded per game2.01.8
Home record3W 3D 4L6W 1D 4L
Away record3W 2D 5L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets5%15%
Both teams scored70%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals91%1.10
Over 2.5 goals76%1.31
Over 3.5 goals57%1.77
Both teams to score75%1.34
Hamburg SV or Draw54%1.86
VfB Stuttgart or Draw68%1.48
Hamburg SV to win and Over 2.526%3.78
VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.538%2.60
Hamburg SV clean sheet11%8.85
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet16%6.15

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-27.9%
1-17.7%
2-27.2%
2-16.6%
1-35.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Our prediction for Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-2. We expect Hamburg SV to score 1.8 goals and VfB Stuttgart 2.2.

Will both teams score in Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Both teams to score has a 75% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Hamburg SV last 20 games and 13 of VfB Stuttgart last 20.

How are Hamburg SV playing?

Hamburg SV have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are VfB Stuttgart playing?

VfB Stuttgart have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Hamburg SV and VfB Stuttgart last met?

It ended VfB Stuttgart 4, Hamburg SV 0. In the last 2 meetings Hamburg SV won 1 and VfB Stuttgart won 1.

What is the best bet for Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hamburg against Stuttgart. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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