Predictions › Sweden › Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg

AllsvenskanFri 6 Nov, 18:00 Sweden time

Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg prediction

Tele2 Arena

Hammarby IFHome

2.04 : 0.73

expected goals

IF ElfsborgAway

67%Hammarby

21%Draw

12%Elfsborg

Eagle safe pickHammarby IF draw no bet

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg is Hammarby IF to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Hammarby IF draw no bet at 1.17.

Prediction: Hammarby IF to win
Chance: 67%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Hammarby IF 2.0, IF Elfsborg 0.7
Best bet: Hammarby IF draw no bet at 1.17
Both teams to score: 46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Hammarby IF draw no bet

85% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Hammarby IF to win and Over 2.5

42% chanceFair price 2.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Hammarby IF 67%, the draw 21% and IF Elfsborg 12%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Hammarby IF took 12 points from their last 5 games and IF Elfsborg took 9 from 5. Hammarby IF come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Hammarby IF won 7 of their last 9 games at home. IF Elfsborg won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Hammarby IF score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. IF Elfsborg score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Hammarby IF games and 9 of IF Elfsborg games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Hammarby IF won 2 and IF Elfsborg won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended IF Elfsborg 1, Hammarby IF 2.
6
The safest bet
Hammarby IF draw no bet has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Hammarbyrecent form+3%
Elfsborgrecent form+3%
Hammarbyrest between games-2%
Elfsborgrest between games-5%

Hammarby form D W L W WElfsborg form D D D W WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg: Hammarby IF are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Hammarby IF host IF Elfsborg in the Allsvenskan on Fri 6 Nov, 18:00 at Tele2 Arena. Our prediction for Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg is Hammarby IF to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Hammarby IF draw no bet at 1.17.

Hammarby IF form

Hammarby IF have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

IF Elfsborg form

IF Elfsborg have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Hammarby IF won 2, IF Elfsborg won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished IF Elfsborg 1, Hammarby IF 2.

Our call

We expect Hammarby IF to score about 2.0 goals and IF Elfsborg about 0.7. That points to Hammarby IF to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Hammarby IF draw no bet at 1.17. Our bold bet is Hammarby IF to win and Over 2.5 at 2.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Hammarby	Elfsborg
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	8
Draws	2	8
Losses	5	4
Goals scored	39	28
Goals conceded	16	18
Scored per game	1.9	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	0.9
Home record	7W 0D 2L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	6W 2D 3L	3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.30
Both teams to score	46%	2.18
Hammarby IF or Draw	88%	1.13
IF Elfsborg or Draw	33%	3.07
Hammarby IF to win and Over 2.5	42%	2.37
IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.5	6%	16.40
Hammarby IF clean sheet	48%	2.08
IF Elfsborg clean sheet	13%	7.71

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-013.0%

1-012.2%

1-19.9%

2-19.5%

3-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg?

Our prediction for Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg is Hammarby IF to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Hammarby IF draw no bet at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Hammarby IF to score 2.0 goals and IF Elfsborg 0.7.

Will both teams score in Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Hammarby IF last 20 games and 11 of IF Elfsborg last 20.

How are Hammarby IF playing?

How are IF Elfsborg playing?

What happened when Hammarby IF and IF Elfsborg last met?

It ended IF Elfsborg 1, Hammarby IF 2. In the last 2 meetings Hammarby IF won 2 and IF Elfsborg won 0.

What is the best bet for Hammarby IF vs IF Elfsborg?

Hammarby IF draw no bet at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hammarby against Elfsborg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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