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Predictions › United Kingdom › Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Scottish PremiershipSun 8 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk prediction

Tynecastle Park

Heart of MidlothianHome
1.65 : 0.67
expected goals
FalkirkAway
60%Hearts
25%Draw
14%Falkirk
Eagle safe pickHeart of Midlothian or Draw
1/6

Quick answer

Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/6.

Prediction
Heart of Midlothian to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Heart of Midlothian 1.6, Falkirk 0.7
Best bet
Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/6
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heart of Midlothian or Draw
86% chanceFair price 1/62 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 9/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Heart of Midlothian 60%, the draw 25% and Falkirk 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Heart of Midlothian took 5 points from their last 5 games and Falkirk took 10 from 5. Falkirk come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Heart of Midlothian won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Falkirk won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Heart of Midlothian score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Falkirk score 1.3 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Heart of Midlothian games and 13 of Falkirk games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Heart of Midlothian won 4 and Falkirk won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Falkirk 2, Heart of Midlothian 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heart of Midlothian or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heartsrecent form-1%
  • Falkirkrecent form+1%
  • Heartsrest between games-5%
  • Falkirkrest between games-5%
Hearts form D W L L DFalkirk form D W W L DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk: Heart of Midlothian are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Heart of Midlothian host Falkirk in the Scottish Premiership on Sun 8 Nov, 15:00 at Tynecastle Park. Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/6.

Heart of Midlothian form

Heart of Midlothian have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Falkirk form

Falkirk have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Heart of Midlothian won 4, Falkirk won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Falkirk 2, Heart of Midlothian 1.

Our call

We expect Heart of Midlothian to score about 1.6 goals and Falkirk about 0.7. That points to Heart of Midlothian to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/6. Our bold bet is Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5 at 9/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeartsFalkirk
Games played2020
Wins106
Draws54
Losses510
Goals scored3926
Goals conceded2937
Scored per game1.91.3
Conceded per game1.41.9
Home record7W 2D 0L3W 0D 7L
Away record3W 3D 5L3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored75%70%
Over 2.5 goals75%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%4/9
Over 2.5 goals41%7/5
Over 3.5 goals20%4/1
Both teams to score40%6/4
Heart of Midlothian or Draw86%1/6
Falkirk or Draw40%6/4
Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.531%11/5
Falkirk to win and Over 2.56%16/1
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet51%10/11
Falkirk clean sheet19%4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.6%
2-013.4%
1-111.5%
0-010.5%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk?

Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/6.

What is the score prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Heart of Midlothian to score 1.6 goals and Falkirk 0.7.

Will both teams score in Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Heart of Midlothian last 20 games and 14 of Falkirk last 20.

How are Heart of Midlothian playing?

Heart of Midlothian have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Falkirk playing?

Falkirk have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Heart of Midlothian and Falkirk last met?

It ended Falkirk 2, Heart of Midlothian 1. In the last 5 meetings Heart of Midlothian won 4 and Falkirk won 1.

What is the best bet for Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk?

Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/6, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hearts against Falkirk. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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