Predictions › Conference League › Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland

Conference LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland prediction

Tynecastle Park

Heart of MidlothianHome

1.64 : 1.24

expected goals

FC NordsjællandAway

46%Hearts

26%Draw

28%Nordsjælland

Eagle safe pickHeart of Midlothian +0.5

1.51

Quick answer

Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian +0.5 at 1.51.

Prediction: Heart of Midlothian to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.6, FC Nordsjælland 1.2
Best bet: Heart of Midlothian +0.5 at 1.51
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heart of Midlothian +0.5

63% chancePrice 1.511 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heart of Midlothian to win

43% chancePrice 2.65+15.2% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Heart of Midlothian 46%, the draw 26% and FC Nordsjælland 28%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make FC Nordsjælland the favourite at 2.40, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Heart of Midlothian took 10 points from their last 5 games and FC Nordsjælland took 7 from 5. Heart of Midlothian come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Heart of Midlothian won 10 of their last 10 games at home. FC Nordsjælland won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Heart of Midlothian score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. FC Nordsjælland score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Heart of Midlothian games and 8 of FC Nordsjælland games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Heart of Midlothian +0.5 has a 63% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Heartsrecent form+3%

Hearts form D L W W WNordsjælland form L W D L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland: Heart of Midlothian are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Heart of Midlothian host FC Nordsjælland in the Conference League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at Tynecastle Park. Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian +0.5 at 1.51.

Heart of Midlothian form

Heart of Midlothian have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

FC Nordsjælland form

FC Nordsjælland have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Heart of Midlothian to score about 1.6 goals and FC Nordsjælland about 1.2. That points to Heart of Midlothian to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Heart of Midlothian +0.5 at 1.51. Our bold bet is Heart of Midlothian to win at 2.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Hearts	Nordsjælland
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	10
Draws	3	6
Losses	5	4
Goals scored	34	29
Goals conceded	22	19
Scored per game	1.7	1.4
Conceded per game	1.1	0.9
Home record	10W 0D 0L	7W 2D 0L
Away record	2W 3D 5L	3W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Heart of Midlothian to win	43%	2.30	2.65	+15.2%
A Draw	25%	3.95	3.60	-8.8%
FC Nordsjælland to win	28%	3.60	2.40	-33.4%
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.78	2.30	-17.1%
Under 3.5 goals	61%	1.65	1.56	-5.8%
Heart of Midlothian +0.5	63%	1.59	1.51	-5.0%
FC Nordsjælland -0.5	35%	2.86	2.25	-21.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.82
Over 3.5 goals	33%	3.07
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
Heart of Midlothian or Draw	72%	1.39
FC Nordsjælland or Draw	54%	1.86
Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.33
FC Nordsjælland to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.69
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet	29%	3.45
FC Nordsjælland clean sheet	19%	5.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%

2-19.4%

1-08.5%

2-07.6%

1-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?

Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian +0.5 at 1.51.

What is the score prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Heart of Midlothian to score 1.6 goals and FC Nordsjælland 1.2.

Will both teams score in Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Heart of Midlothian last 20 games and 11 of FC Nordsjælland last 20.

How are Heart of Midlothian playing?

How are FC Nordsjælland playing?

What is the best bet for Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjælland?

Heart of Midlothian +0.5 at 1.51, with a 63% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hearts against Nordsjælland. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.