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Predictions › United Kingdom › Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
Scottish PremiershipSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren prediction

Tynecastle Park

Heart of MidlothianHome
2.15 : 0.91
expected goals
St MirrenAway
65%Hearts
21%Draw
14%St Mirren
Eagle safe pickHeart of Midlothian or Draw
1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/5.

Prediction
Heart of Midlothian to win
Chance
65%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Heart of Midlothian 2.1, St Mirren 0.9
Best bet
Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/5
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heart of Midlothian or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1/52 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 7/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Heart of Midlothian 65%, the draw 21% and St Mirren 14%. The bookmakers agree and make Heart of Midlothian the favourite at 4/9.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Heart of Midlothian took 10 points from their last 5 games and St Mirren took 4 from 5. Heart of Midlothian come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Heart of Midlothian won 10 of their last 10 games at home. St Mirren won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Heart of Midlothian score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. St Mirren score 0.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Heart of Midlothian games and 7 of St Mirren games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Heart of Midlothian won 1 and St Mirren won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended St Mirren 1, Heart of Midlothian 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heart of Midlothian or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heartsrecent form+3%
  • St Mirrenrecent form-3%
Hearts form D L W W WSt Mirren form L L L W DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren: Heart of Midlothian are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Heart of Midlothian host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Tynecastle Park. Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/5.

Heart of Midlothian form

Heart of Midlothian have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

St Mirren form

St Mirren have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Heart of Midlothian won 1, St Mirren won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished St Mirren 1, Heart of Midlothian 0.

Our call

We expect Heart of Midlothian to score about 2.1 goals and St Mirren about 0.9. That points to Heart of Midlothian to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/5. Our bold bet is Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.5 at 7/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeartsSt Mirren
Games played2020
Wins126
Draws33
Losses511
Goals scored3417
Goals conceded2229
Scored per game1.70.8
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record10W 0D 0L2W 2D 6L
Away record2W 3D 5L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored65%30%
Over 2.5 goals65%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Heart of Midlothian to win64%4/74/9-7.6%
A Draw20%4/17/2-4.8%
St Mirren to win14%6/19/2-17.0%
Over 3.5 goals37%13/86/5-17.6%
Under 3.5 goals57%4/54/7-11.1%
Heart of Midlothian -1.540%6/411/10-16.5%
St Mirren +1.554%5/64/7-14.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%2/9
Over 2.5 goals59%4/6
Over 3.5 goals37%7/4
Both teams to score53%5/6
Heart of Midlothian or Draw86%1/6
St Mirren or Draw35%15/8
Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.545%5/4
St Mirren to win and Over 2.59%11/1
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet40%6/4
St Mirren clean sheet12%15/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.8%
2-19.9%
1-19.7%
1-09.5%
3-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?

Our prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-1. We expect Heart of Midlothian to score 2.1 goals and St Mirren 0.9.

Will both teams score in Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Heart of Midlothian last 20 games and 6 of St Mirren last 20.

How are Heart of Midlothian playing?

Heart of Midlothian have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are St Mirren playing?

St Mirren have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Heart of Midlothian and St Mirren last met?

It ended St Mirren 1, Heart of Midlothian 0. In the last 3 meetings Heart of Midlothian won 1 and St Mirren won 1.

What is the best bet for Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?

Heart of Midlothian or Draw at 1/5, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hearts against St Mirren. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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