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Predictions › Netherlands › Heerenveen vs Excelsior
EredivisieFri 16 Oct, 18:00 Netherlands time

Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction

Abe Lenstra Stadion

HeerenveenHome
1.36 : 1.63
expected goals
ExcelsiorAway
31%Heerenveen
25%Draw
43%Excelsior
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Excelsior to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Heerenveen 1.4, Excelsior 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Excelsior to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Heerenveen 31%, the draw 25% and Excelsior 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Heerenveen took 5 points from their last 5 games and Excelsior took 8 from 5. Excelsior come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Heerenveen won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Excelsior won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Heerenveen score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Excelsior score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Heerenveen games and 15 of Excelsior games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Heerenveen won 2 and Excelsior won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Excelsior 1, Heerenveen 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heerenveenrecent form-1%
  • Excelsiorrecent form+1%
Heerenveen form W D L D LExcelsior form D L D W WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Heerenveen vs Excelsior: Excelsior shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Heerenveen host Excelsior in the Eredivisie on Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Our prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Heerenveen form

Heerenveen have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Excelsior form

Excelsior have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Heerenveen won 2, Excelsior won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Excelsior 1, Heerenveen 2.

Our call

We expect Heerenveen to score about 1.4 goals and Excelsior about 1.6. That points to Excelsior to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Excelsior to win and Over 2.5 at 3.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeerenveenExcelsior
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws55
Losses68
Goals scored3536
Goals conceded2828
Scored per game1.81.8
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record6W 2D 2L2W 1D 6L
Away record3W 3D 4L5W 4D 2L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored55%70%
Over 2.5 goals70%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.74
Over 3.5 goals35%2.86
Both teams to score60%1.66
Heerenveen or Draw57%1.76
Excelsior or Draw69%1.46
Heerenveen to win and Over 2.521%4.86
Excelsior to win and Over 2.529%3.46
Heerenveen clean sheet20%5.08
Excelsior clean sheet26%3.90

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
1-29.1%
2-17.6%
0-17.5%
0-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Heerenveen to score 1.4 goals and Excelsior 1.6.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Heerenveen last 20 games and 14 of Excelsior last 20.

How are Heerenveen playing?

Heerenveen have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Excelsior playing?

Excelsior have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Heerenveen and Excelsior last met?

It ended Excelsior 1, Heerenveen 2. In the last 2 meetings Heerenveen won 2 and Excelsior won 0.

What is the best bet for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heerenveen against Excelsior. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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