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Predictions › Netherlands › Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
EredivisieSat 31 Oct, 17:45 Netherlands time

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Abe Lenstra Stadion

HeerenveenHome
1.59 : 1.42
expected goals
NEC NijmegenAway
41%Heerenveen
25%Draw
34%NEC
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen is Heerenveen to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Heerenveen to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Heerenveen 1.6, NEC Nijmegen 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Heerenveen 41%, the draw 25% and NEC Nijmegen 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Heerenveen took 7 points from their last 5 games and NEC Nijmegen took 4 from 5. Heerenveen come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Heerenveen won 6 of their last 10 games at home. NEC Nijmegen won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Heerenveen score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.3. NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Heerenveen games and 13 of NEC Nijmegen games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Heerenveen won 1 and NEC Nijmegen won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended NEC Nijmegen 2, Heerenveen 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heerenveenrecent form-1%
  • NECrecent form-1%
Heerenveen form D L W D LNEC form D D D D LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: Heerenveen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Heerenveen host NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie on Sat 31 Oct, 17:45 at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Our prediction for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen is Heerenveen to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Heerenveen form

Heerenveen have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Heerenveen won 1, NEC Nijmegen won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished NEC Nijmegen 2, Heerenveen 2.

Our call

We expect Heerenveen to score about 1.6 goals and NEC Nijmegen about 1.4. That points to Heerenveen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.78.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeerenveenNEC
Games played2020
Wins96
Draws59
Losses65
Goals scored3432
Goals conceded2532
Scored per game1.71.6
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record6W 2D 2L2W 7D 2L
Away record3W 3D 4L4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets35%10%
Both teams scored45%80%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals58%1.73
Over 3.5 goals36%2.82
Both teams to score61%1.64
Heerenveen or Draw66%1.51
NEC Nijmegen or Draw59%1.69
Heerenveen to win and Over 2.528%3.63
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.522%4.49
Heerenveen clean sheet24%4.15
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet20%4.90

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%
1-07.2%
0-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen is Heerenveen to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Heerenveen to score 1.6 goals and NEC Nijmegen 1.4.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Heerenveen last 20 games and 16 of NEC Nijmegen last 20.

How are Heerenveen playing?

Heerenveen have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen last met?

It ended NEC Nijmegen 2, Heerenveen 2. In the last 2 meetings Heerenveen won 1 and NEC Nijmegen won 0.

What is the best bet for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heerenveen against NEC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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