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Predictions › Germany › Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. BundesligaSun 11 Oct, 11:30 Germany time

Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction

Olympic Stadium Berlin

Hertha BerlinHome
2.00 : 1.14
expected goals
SpVgg Greuther FürthAway
57%Hertha
23%Draw
21%Greuther Furth
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is Hertha Berlin to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Hertha Berlin to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Hertha Berlin 2.0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Hertha Berlin to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Hertha Berlin 57%, the draw 23% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%. The bookmakers agree and make Hertha Berlin the favourite at 1.59.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Hertha Berlin took 15 points from their last 5 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth took 5 from 5. Hertha Berlin come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Hertha Berlin won 4 of their last 8 games at home. SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Hertha Berlin score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. SpVgg Greuther Fürth score 1.5 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Hertha Berlin games and 10 of SpVgg Greuther Fürth games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Hertha Berlin won 1 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Hertha Berlin 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hertharecent form+7%
  • Greuther Furthrecent form-1%
Hertha form W W W W WGreuther Furth form D D L W LHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Hertha Berlin are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Hertha Berlin host SpVgg Greuther Fürth in the 2. Bundesliga on Sun 11 Oct, 11:30 at Olympic Stadium Berlin. Our prediction for Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is Hertha Berlin to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Hertha Berlin form

Hertha Berlin have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth form

SpVgg Greuther Fürth have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Hertha Berlin won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Hertha Berlin 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.

Our call

We expect Hertha Berlin to score about 2.0 goals and SpVgg Greuther Fürth about 1.1. That points to Hertha Berlin to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Hertha Berlin to win and Over 2.5 at 2.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HerthaGreuther Furth
Games played2020
Wins126
Draws26
Losses68
Goals scored3930
Goals conceded3132
Scored per game1.91.5
Conceded per game1.61.6
Home record4W 1D 3L4W 3D 4L
Away record8W 1D 3L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored70%70%
Over 2.5 goals65%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Hertha Berlin to win53%1.871.59-15.1%
A Draw22%4.494.30-4.3%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win20%4.924.60-6.6%
Over 3.5 goals42%2.391.95-18.4%
Under 3.5 goals52%1.911.74-8.9%
Hertha Berlin -0.555%1.821.53-16.0%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth +0.539%2.562.20-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.65
Over 3.5 goals38%2.61
Both teams to score59%1.69
Hertha Berlin or Draw79%1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Draw43%2.31
Hertha Berlin to win and Over 2.540%2.50
SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win and Over 2.513%7.45
Hertha Berlin clean sheet32%3.11
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet14%7.38

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%
2-19.9%
2-08.7%
1-08.1%
3-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?

Our prediction for Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is Hertha Berlin to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Hertha Berlin to score 2.0 goals and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.1.

Will both teams score in Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Hertha Berlin last 20 games and 14 of SpVgg Greuther Fürth last 20.

How are Hertha Berlin playing?

Hertha Berlin have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are SpVgg Greuther Fürth playing?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Hertha Berlin and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last met?

It ended Hertha Berlin 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1. In the last 2 meetings Hertha Berlin won 1 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 0.

What is the best bet for Hertha Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hertha against Greuther Furth. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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