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Predictions › United Kingdom › Hibernian vs Falkirk
Scottish PremiershipSat 17 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Hibernian vs Falkirk prediction

Easter Road

HibernianHome
1.25 : 0.98
expected goals
FalkirkAway
42%Hibernian
30%Draw
28%Falkirk
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Hibernian vs Falkirk is Hibernian to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Hibernian to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Hibernian 1.3, Falkirk 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Hibernian 42%, the draw 30% and Falkirk 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Hibernian took 4 points from their last 5 games and Falkirk took 5 from 5. Falkirk come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Hibernian won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Falkirk won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Hibernian score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Falkirk score 1.4 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Hibernian games and 12 of Falkirk games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Hibernian won 2 and Falkirk won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Falkirk 1, Hibernian 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hibernianrecent form-3%
  • Falkirkrecent form-1%
Hibernian form D L W L LFalkirk form D W D L LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Hibernian vs Falkirk: Hibernian shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Hibernian host Falkirk in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 at Easter Road. Our prediction for Hibernian vs Falkirk is Hibernian to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

Hibernian form

Hibernian have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Falkirk form

Falkirk have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 39 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Hibernian won 2, Falkirk won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Falkirk 1, Hibernian 3.

Our call

We expect Hibernian to score about 1.3 goals and Falkirk about 1.0. That points to Hibernian to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HibernianFalkirk
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws44
Losses911
Goals scored2527
Goals conceded2539
Scored per game1.31.4
Conceded per game1.31.9
Home record2W 2D 6L4W 0D 7L
Away record5W 2D 3L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored60%70%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1/2
Over 2.5 goals39%8/5
Over 3.5 goals19%9/2
Both teams to score45%6/5
Hibernian or Draw72%2/5
Falkirk or Draw58%8/11
Hibernian to win and Over 2.521%4/1
Falkirk to win and Over 2.513%13/2
Hibernian clean sheet38%13/8
Falkirk clean sheet29%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-012.6%
0-011.5%
0-19.7%
2-08.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Hibernian vs Falkirk?

Our prediction for Hibernian vs Falkirk is Hibernian to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Hibernian vs Falkirk?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Hibernian to score 1.3 goals and Falkirk 1.0.

Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Falkirk?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Hibernian last 20 games and 14 of Falkirk last 20.

How are Hibernian playing?

Hibernian have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Falkirk playing?

Falkirk have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 39 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Hibernian and Falkirk last met?

It ended Falkirk 1, Hibernian 3. In the last 4 meetings Hibernian won 2 and Falkirk won 1.

What is the best bet for Hibernian vs Falkirk?

Under 3.5 goals at 2/7, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hibernian against Falkirk. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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