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Predictions › Germany › Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck
2. BundesligaSat 19 Sept, 11:00 Germany time

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck prediction

Holstein-Stadion

Holstein KielHome
1.80 : 1.26
expected goals
VfL OsnabruckAway
49%Holstein Kiel
24%Draw
26%Osnabruck
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck is Holstein Kiel to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Holstein Kiel to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Holstein Kiel 1.8, VfL Osnabruck 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Holstein Kiel to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Holstein Kiel 49%, the draw 24% and VfL Osnabruck 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Holstein Kiel took 3 points from their last 5 games and VfL Osnabruck took 6 from 4. VfL Osnabruck come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Holstein Kiel score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.7. VfL Osnabruck score 1.8 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Holstein Kiel games and 3 of VfL Osnabruck games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Osnabruckrecent form-1%
Holstein Kiel form D L W D DOsnabruck form W L W L LHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck: Holstein Kiel are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Holstein Kiel host VfL Osnabruck in the 2. Bundesliga on Sat 19 Sept, 11:00 at Holstein-Stadion. Our prediction for Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck is Holstein Kiel to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Holstein Kiel form

Holstein Kiel have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

VfL Osnabruck form

VfL Osnabruck have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 4 results read W, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Holstein Kiel to score about 1.8 goals and VfL Osnabruck about 1.3. That points to Holstein Kiel to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Holstein Kiel to win and Over 2.5 at 3.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Holstein KielOsnabruck
Games played204
Wins52
Draws60
Losses92
Goals scored287
Goals conceded348
Scored per game1.41.8
Conceded per game1.72.0
Home record2W 4D 4L1W 0D 1L
Away record3W 2D 5L1W 0D 1L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored70%50%
Over 2.5 goals70%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.69
Over 3.5 goals37%2.73
Both teams to score60%1.65
Holstein Kiel or Draw74%1.36
VfL Osnabruck or Draw51%1.98
Holstein Kiel to win and Over 2.534%2.94
VfL Osnabruck to win and Over 2.517%5.80
Holstein Kiel clean sheet28%3.53
VfL Osnabruck clean sheet17%6.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
2-19.6%
1-07.8%
2-07.6%
1-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck?

Our prediction for Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck is Holstein Kiel to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Holstein Kiel to score 1.8 goals and VfL Osnabruck 1.3.

Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Holstein Kiel last 20 games and 2 of VfL Osnabruck last 4.

How are Holstein Kiel playing?

Holstein Kiel have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

How are VfL Osnabruck playing?

VfL Osnabruck have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 4 results read W, W, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabruck?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Holstein Kiel against Osnabruck. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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