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Predictions › United States › Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas
MLSSat 17 Oct, 20:30 United States time

Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas prediction

Shell Energy Stadium

Houston Dynamo FCHome
1.27 : 1.32
expected goals
FC DallasAway
35%Houston
28%Draw
37%Dallas
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
-297

Quick answer

Our prediction for Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas is FC Dallas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -297.

Prediction
FC Dallas to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Houston Dynamo FC 1.3, FC Dallas 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at -297
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price -2971 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price +6501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Houston Dynamo FC 35%, the draw 28% and FC Dallas 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Houston Dynamo FC took 5 points from their last 5 games and FC Dallas took 13 from 5. FC Dallas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Houston Dynamo FC won 6 of their last 10 games at home. FC Dallas won 6 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Houston Dynamo FC score 1.1 goals a game and let in 0.8. FC Dallas score 1.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Houston Dynamo FC games and 14 of FC Dallas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Houston Dynamo FC won 0 and FC Dallas won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended FC Dallas 4, Houston Dynamo FC 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Houstonrecent form-1%
  • Dallasrecent form+6%
Houston form L D L W DDallas form W D W W WHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas: FC Dallas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Houston Dynamo FC host FC Dallas in the MLS on Sat 17 Oct, 20:30 at Shell Energy Stadium. Our prediction for Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas is FC Dallas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -297.

Houston Dynamo FC form

Houston Dynamo FC have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

FC Dallas form

FC Dallas have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Houston Dynamo FC won 0, FC Dallas won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished FC Dallas 4, Houston Dynamo FC 3.

Our call

We expect Houston Dynamo FC to score about 1.3 goals and FC Dallas about 1.3. That points to FC Dallas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at -297. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +650.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HoustonDallas
Games played2020
Wins1010
Draws55
Losses55
Goals scored2335
Goals conceded1632
Scored per game1.11.8
Conceded per game0.81.6
Home record6W 3D 1L4W 2D 2L
Away record4W 2D 4L6W 3D 3L
Clean sheets50%20%
Both teams scored30%65%
Over 2.5 goals30%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%-281
Over 2.5 goals48%+109
Over 3.5 goals26%+283
Both teams to score53%-115
Houston Dynamo FC or Draw63%-170
FC Dallas or Draw65%-186
Houston Dynamo FC to win and Over 2.520%+398
FC Dallas to win and Over 2.521%+367
Houston Dynamo FC clean sheet27%+273
FC Dallas clean sheet28%+256

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
0-19.1%
1-08.8%
1-28.3%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas?

Our prediction for Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas is FC Dallas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -297.

What is the score prediction for Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Houston Dynamo FC to score 1.3 goals and FC Dallas 1.3.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Houston Dynamo FC last 20 games and 13 of FC Dallas last 20.

How are Houston Dynamo FC playing?

Houston Dynamo FC have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

How are FC Dallas playing?

FC Dallas have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Houston Dynamo FC and FC Dallas last met?

It ended FC Dallas 4, Houston Dynamo FC 3. In the last 1 meeting Houston Dynamo FC won 0 and FC Dallas won 1.

What is the best bet for Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas?

Under 3.5 goals at -297, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Houston against Dallas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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