Predictions › Chile › Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion

Chilean Primera DivisionSun 22 Nov, 15:00 Chile time

Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion prediction

Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

HuachipatoHome

1.34 : 1.32

expected goals

Deportes ConcepcionAway

37%Huachipato

28%Draw

36%Concepcion

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion is Huachipato to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Huachipato to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Huachipato 1.3, Deportes Concepcion 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.621 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Huachipato 37%, the draw 28% and Deportes Concepcion 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Huachipato the favourite at 2.50.
2
Recent form
Huachipato took 8 points from their last 5 games and Deportes Concepcion took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Huachipato won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Deportes Concepcion won 4 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Huachipato score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.5. Deportes Concepcion score 1.3 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Huachipato games and 5 of Deportes Concepcion games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Huachipato won 0 and Deportes Concepcion won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportes Concepcion 2, Huachipato 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Huachipatorecent form+3%

Huachipato form D D D W WConcepcion form W W L D LHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion: Huachipato shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Huachipato host Deportes Concepcion in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 22 Nov, 15:00 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero. Our prediction for Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion is Huachipato to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Huachipato form

Huachipato have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Deportes Concepcion form

Deportes Concepcion have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Huachipato won 0, Deportes Concepcion won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportes Concepcion 2, Huachipato 0.

Our call

We expect Huachipato to score about 1.3 goals and Deportes Concepcion about 1.3. That points to Huachipato to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.62.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Huachipato	Concepcion
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	10
Draws	6	4
Losses	7	6
Goals scored	27	26
Goals conceded	30	18
Scored per game	1.4	1.3
Conceded per game	1.5	0.9
Home record	4W 3D 3L	6W 3D 3L
Away record	3W 3D 4L	4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets	35%	45%
Both teams scored	45%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Huachipato to win	36%	2.78	2.50	-10.2%
A Draw	27%	3.70	3.25	-12.2%
Deportes Concepcion to win	35%	2.87	2.65	-7.5%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.13	1.80	-15.3%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.16	1.87	-13.6%
Huachipato -0.5	37%	2.70	2.35	-12.9%
Deportes Concepcion +0.5	58%	1.73	1.48	-14.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.02
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.61
Both teams to score	55%	1.82
Huachipato or Draw	64%	1.55
Deportes Concepcion or Draw	63%	1.58
Huachipato to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.58
Deportes Concepcion to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.74
Huachipato clean sheet	27%	3.73
Deportes Concepcion clean sheet	26%	3.83

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

1-08.7%

0-18.5%

2-18.3%

1-28.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion?

Our prediction for Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion is Huachipato to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Huachipato to score 1.3 goals and Deportes Concepcion 1.3.

Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Huachipato last 20 games and 7 of Deportes Concepcion last 20.

How are Huachipato playing?

How are Deportes Concepcion playing?

What happened when Huachipato and Deportes Concepcion last met?

It ended Deportes Concepcion 2, Huachipato 0. In the last 1 meeting Huachipato won 0 and Deportes Concepcion won 1.

What is the best bet for Huachipato vs Deportes Concepcion?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Huachipato against Concepcion. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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