Predictions › Sweden › IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

AllsvenskanSun 13 Sept, 12:00 Sweden time

IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF prediction

Boras Arena

IF ElfsborgHome

1.70 : 0.94

expected goals

Kalmar FFAway

54%Elfsborg

25%Draw

20%Kalmar FF

Eagle safe pickIF Elfsborg or Draw

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is IF Elfsborg or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction: IF Elfsborg to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 1.7, Kalmar FF 0.9
Best bet: IF Elfsborg or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

IF Elfsborg or Draw

83% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives IF Elfsborg 54%, the draw 25% and Kalmar FF 20%. The bookmakers agree and make IF Elfsborg the favourite at 1.87.
2
Recent form
IF Elfsborg took 10 points from their last 5 games and Kalmar FF took 1 from 5. IF Elfsborg come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
IF Elfsborg won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Kalmar FF won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
IF Elfsborg score 1.3 goals a game and let in 0.9. Kalmar FF score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of IF Elfsborg games and 10 of Kalmar FF games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, IF Elfsborg won 0 and Kalmar FF won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Kalmar FF 2, IF Elfsborg 1.
6
The safest bet
IF Elfsborg or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Elfsborgrecent form+3%
Kalmar FFrecent form-6%

Elfsborg form L W D W WKalmar FF form L L D L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF: IF Elfsborg are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

IF Elfsborg host Kalmar FF in the Allsvenskan on Sun 13 Sept, 12:00 at Boras Arena. Our prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is IF Elfsborg or Draw at 1.21.

IF Elfsborg form

IF Elfsborg have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Kalmar FF form

Kalmar FF have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. IF Elfsborg won 0, Kalmar FF won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Kalmar FF 2, IF Elfsborg 1.

Our call

We expect IF Elfsborg to score about 1.7 goals and Kalmar FF about 0.9. That points to IF Elfsborg to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is IF Elfsborg or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.5 at 3.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Elfsborg	Kalmar FF
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	5
Draws	7	4
Losses	5	11
Goals scored	26	21
Goals conceded	19	30
Scored per game	1.3	1.1
Conceded per game	0.9	1.5
Home record	5W 3D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 4D 3L	0W 2D 8L
Clean sheets	35%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
IF Elfsborg to win	54%	1.84	1.87	+1.5%
A Draw	24%	4.19	3.65	-12.8%
Kalmar FF to win	18%	5.41	3.95	-27.0%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.83	-9.6%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.91	-8.0%
IF Elfsborg -0.5	51%	1.95	1.80	-7.8%
Kalmar FF +0.5	46%	2.16	1.87	-13.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.03
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.66
Both teams to score	51%	1.98
IF Elfsborg or Draw	80%	1.25
Kalmar FF or Draw	46%	2.20
IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.5	33%	3.05
Kalmar FF to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.13
IF Elfsborg clean sheet	39%	2.57
Kalmar FF clean sheet	18%	5.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%

1-011.4%

2-010.3%

2-19.7%

0-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

Our prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is IF Elfsborg or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect IF Elfsborg to score 1.7 goals and Kalmar FF 0.9.

Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of IF Elfsborg last 20 games and 9 of Kalmar FF last 20.

How are IF Elfsborg playing?

How are Kalmar FF playing?

What happened when IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF last met?

It ended Kalmar FF 2, IF Elfsborg 1. In the last 1 meeting IF Elfsborg won 0 and Kalmar FF won 1.

What is the best bet for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

IF Elfsborg or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Elfsborg against Kalmar FF. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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