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Predictions › Sweden › IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF
AllsvenskanFri 23 Oct, 17:00 Sweden time

IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF prediction

Boras Arena

IF ElfsborgHome
1.47 : 0.87
expected goals
Malmö FFAway
50%Elfsborg
28%Draw
22%Malmö
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
IF Elfsborg to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
IF Elfsborg 1.5, Malmö FF 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives IF Elfsborg 50%, the draw 28% and Malmö FF 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    IF Elfsborg took 12 points from their last 5 games and Malmö FF took 10 from 5. IF Elfsborg come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    IF Elfsborg won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Malmö FF won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    IF Elfsborg score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. Malmö FF score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of IF Elfsborg games and 13 of Malmö FF games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, IF Elfsborg won 1 and Malmö FF won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Malmö FF 1, IF Elfsborg 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Elfsborgrecent form+3%
  • Malmörecent form+1%
  • Elfsborgrest between games-5%
  • Malmörest between games-5%
Elfsborg form D W W L WMalmö form D L W D WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF: IF Elfsborg are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

IF Elfsborg host Malmö FF in the Allsvenskan on Fri 23 Oct, 17:00 at Boras Arena. Our prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

IF Elfsborg form

IF Elfsborg have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Malmö FF form

Malmö FF have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. IF Elfsborg won 1, Malmö FF won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Malmö FF 1, IF Elfsborg 2.

Our call

We expect IF Elfsborg to score about 1.5 goals and Malmö FF about 0.9. That points to IF Elfsborg to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ElfsborgMalmö
Games played2020
Wins99
Draws62
Losses59
Goals scored2833
Goals conceded1831
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game0.91.6
Home record6W 3D 2L4W 1D 6L
Away record3W 3D 3L5W 1D 3L
Clean sheets35%35%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.46
Over 2.5 goals41%2.42
Over 3.5 goals21%4.80
Both teams to score46%2.20
IF Elfsborg or Draw78%1.28
Malmö FF or Draw50%2.01
IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.527%3.77
Malmö FF to win and Over 2.510%9.68
IF Elfsborg clean sheet42%2.39
Malmö FF clean sheet23%4.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.4%
1-113.1%
0-010.4%
2-010.4%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

Our prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect IF Elfsborg to score 1.5 goals and Malmö FF 0.9.

Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of IF Elfsborg last 20 games and 11 of Malmö FF last 20.

How are IF Elfsborg playing?

IF Elfsborg have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Malmö FF playing?

Malmö FF have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when IF Elfsborg and Malmö FF last met?

It ended Malmö FF 1, IF Elfsborg 2. In the last 2 meetings IF Elfsborg won 1 and Malmö FF won 0.

What is the best bet for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Elfsborg against Malmö. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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