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Predictions › Norway › IK Start vs Lillestrom
EliteserienSun 1 Nov, 16:00 Norway time

IK Start vs Lillestrom prediction

Sparebanken Sor Arena

IK StartHome
1.19 : 1.40
expected goals
LillestromAway
31%IK Start
28%Draw
41%Lillestrom
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for IK Start vs Lillestrom is Lillestrom to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Lillestrom to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
IK Start 1.2, Lillestrom 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.551 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives IK Start 31%, the draw 28% and Lillestrom 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    IK Start took 3 points from their last 5 games and Lillestrom took 5 from 5. Lillestrom come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    IK Start won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Lillestrom won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    IK Start score 1.1 goals a game and let in 2.5. Lillestrom score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of IK Start games and 11 of Lillestrom games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, IK Start won 0 and Lillestrom won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lillestrom 3, IK Start 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • IK Startrecent form-3%
  • Lillestromrecent form-3%
IK Start form D L L W LLillestrom form D D D L LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

IK Start vs Lillestrom: Lillestrom shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

IK Start host Lillestrom in the Eliteserien on Sun 1 Nov, 16:00 at Sparebanken Sor Arena. Our prediction for IK Start vs Lillestrom is Lillestrom to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

IK Start form

IK Start have 4 wins, 2 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 50 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. IK Start won 0, Lillestrom won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lillestrom 3, IK Start 1.

Our call

We expect IK Start to score about 1.2 goals and Lillestrom about 1.4. That points to Lillestrom to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.55.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

IK StartLillestrom
Games played2020
Wins47
Draws23
Losses1410
Goals scored2325
Goals conceded5032
Scored per game1.11.3
Conceded per game2.51.6
Home record3W 2D 5L4W 1D 6L
Away record1W 0D 9L3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets10%20%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.35
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.81
Both teams to score53%1.88
IK Start or Draw59%1.69
Lillestrom or Draw69%1.46
IK Start to win and Over 2.518%5.62
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.524%4.19
IK Start clean sheet25%4.05
Lillestrom clean sheet30%3.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
0-19.7%
1-28.7%
0-08.2%
1-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win IK Start vs Lillestrom?

Our prediction for IK Start vs Lillestrom is Lillestrom to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for IK Start vs Lillestrom?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect IK Start to score 1.2 goals and Lillestrom 1.4.

Will both teams score in IK Start vs Lillestrom?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of IK Start last 20 games and 10 of Lillestrom last 20.

How are IK Start playing?

IK Start have 4 wins, 2 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 50 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Lillestrom playing?

Lillestrom have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when IK Start and Lillestrom last met?

It ended Lillestrom 3, IK Start 1. In the last 1 meeting IK Start won 0 and Lillestrom won 1.

What is the best bet for IK Start vs Lillestrom?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in IK Start against Lillestrom. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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