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Predictions › United States › Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans
College FootballSat 10 Oct, 15:30 United States time

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans prediction

Spartan Stadium

Illinois Fighting IlliniAway
22.2 : 31.2
projected points
Michigan State SpartansHome
27%Illinois
73%Michigan St
Eagle safe pickMichigan St +1.5
-296

Quick answer

Our prediction for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans is Michigan State Spartans to win, with a 73% chance. We project Illinois Fighting Illini 22.2 and Michigan State Spartans 31.2. Our best bet is Michigan St +1.5 at -296.

Prediction
Michigan State Spartans to win
Chance
73%
Projected score
Illinois Fighting Illini 22, Michigan State Spartans 31
Projected total
53.4 points
Best bet
Michigan St +1.5 at -296

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Michigan St +1.5
75% chanceFair price -2961 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Illinois to win
27% chanceFair price +2641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Michigan State Spartans 73% and Illinois Fighting Illini 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Michigan State Spartans won 3 of their last 5 and Illinois Fighting Illini won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Michigan State Spartans won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Illinois Fighting Illini won 1 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Michigan State Spartans score 22.7 points a game and let in 28.4. Illinois Fighting Illini score 28.1 and let in 26.1. Their recent games average 51.1 and 54.1 points in total.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Michigan St +1.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans: Michigan State Spartans are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Michigan State Spartans host Illinois Fighting Illini in the College Football on Sat 10 Oct, 15:30 at Spartan Stadium. Our prediction for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans is Michigan State Spartans to win, with a 73% chance. We project Illinois Fighting Illini 22.2 and Michigan State Spartans 31.2. Our best bet is Michigan St +1.5 at -296.

Michigan State Spartans form

Michigan State Spartans have 4 wins and 10 losses in their last 14 games, with 318 points scored and 398 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Illinois Fighting Illini form

Illinois Fighting Illini have 9 wins and 6 losses in their last 15 games, with 421 points scored and 391 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Illinois Fighting Illini to score about 22.2 points and Michigan State Spartans about 31.2. That points to Michigan State Spartans to win. Our safest bet is Michigan St +1.5 at -296. Our bold bet is Illinois to win at +264.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 15 games in all competitions.

Michigan StIllinois
Games played1415
Wins49
Losses106
Points scored318421
Points conceded398391
Scored per game22.728.1
Conceded per game28.426.1
Home record4W 4L8W 2L
Away record0W 6L1W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Michigan St spreadCoversFair
Michigan St -15.534%+193
Michigan St -11.544%+129
Michigan St -8.551%-105
Michigan St -5.559%-141
Michigan St -1.568%-212
Total pointsOverUnder
46.567%33%
50.557%43%
53.550%50%
56.542%58%
60.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Michigan St +3.5 wins if Michigan St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?

Our prediction for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans is Michigan State Spartans to win, with a 73% chance. We project Illinois Fighting Illini 22.2 and Michigan State Spartans 31.2. Our best bet is Michigan St +1.5 at -296.

What is the projected score for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?

We project Illinois Fighting Illini 22.2 and Michigan State Spartans 31.2, about 53.4 points in total.

How are Michigan State Spartans playing?

Michigan State Spartans have 4 wins and 10 losses in their last 14 games, with 318 points scored and 398 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Illinois Fighting Illini playing?

Illinois Fighting Illini have 9 wins and 6 losses in their last 15 games, with 421 points scored and 391 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?

Michigan St +1.5 at -296, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Michigan St against Illinois. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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