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Predictions › Colombia › Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC
Colombian Primera ASun 1 Nov, 23:10 Colombia time

Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Independiente MedellínHome
1.44 : 0.98
expected goals
Alianza FCAway
47%Ind. Medellín
28%Draw
25%Alianza FC
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente Medellín 1.4, Alianza FC 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Medellín 47%, the draw 28% and Alianza FC 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Medellín took 4 points from their last 5 games and Alianza FC took 7 from 5. Alianza FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Medellín won 6 of their last 12 games at home. Alianza FC won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Medellín score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Alianza FC score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Independiente Medellín games and 12 of Alianza FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Independiente Medellín won 1 and Alianza FC won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Alianza FC 0, Independiente Medellín 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form-1%
  • Alianza FCrecent form-1%
Ind. Medellín form D L W L DAlianza FC form D D L W LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC: Independiente Medellín are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Medellín host Alianza FC in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 1 Nov, 23:10 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Alianza FC form

Alianza FC have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Independiente Medellín won 1, Alianza FC won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza FC 0, Independiente Medellín 1.

Our call

We expect Independiente Medellín to score about 1.4 goals and Alianza FC about 1.0. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.52.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Ind. MedellínAlianza FC
Games played2020
Wins105
Draws26
Losses89
Goals scored2721
Goals conceded2733
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record6W 1D 5L1W 5D 5L
Away record4W 1D 3L4W 1D 4L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.29
Over 3.5 goals23%4.42
Both teams to score49%2.06
Independiente Medellín or Draw75%1.33
Alianza FC or Draw53%1.88
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.526%3.90
Alianza FC to win and Over 2.513%7.84
Independiente Medellín clean sheet37%2.67
Alianza FC clean sheet24%4.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-012.0%
0-09.6%
2-09.2%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC?

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Independiente Medellín to score 1.4 goals and Alianza FC 1.0.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Independiente Medellín last 20 games and 12 of Alianza FC last 20.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Alianza FC playing?

Alianza FC have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Medellín and Alianza FC last met?

It ended Alianza FC 0, Independiente Medellín 1. In the last 1 meeting Independiente Medellín won 1 and Alianza FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente Medellín vs Alianza FC?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ind. Medellín against Alianza FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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