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Predictions › Colombia › Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera ATue 6 Oct, 00:00 Colombia time

Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe prediction

Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí

Independiente MedellínHome
1.20 : 1.22
expected goals
Independiente Santa FeAway
35%Ind. Medellín
29%Draw
36%Santa Fe
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Independiente Santa Fe to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente Medellín 1.2, Independiente Santa Fe 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Medellín 35%, the draw 29% and Independiente Santa Fe 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Medellín took 7 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Santa Fe took 10 from 5. Independiente Santa Fe come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Medellín won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Independiente Santa Fe won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Medellín score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Independiente Santa Fe score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Independiente Medellín games and 10 of Independiente Santa Fe games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Independiente Medellín won 0 and Independiente Santa Fe won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Independiente Santa Fe 2, Independiente Medellín 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-5%
Ind. Medellín form L W D L WSanta Fe form D L W L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Medellín host Independiente Santa Fe in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 6 Oct, 00:00 at Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí. Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Independiente Santa Fe form

Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Independiente Medellín won 0, Independiente Santa Fe won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Santa Fe 2, Independiente Medellín 1.

Our call

We expect Independiente Medellín to score about 1.2 goals and Independiente Santa Fe about 1.2. That points to Independiente Santa Fe to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Ind. MedellínSanta Fe
Games played2020
Wins119
Draws18
Losses83
Goals scored2932
Goals conceded2819
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.40.9
Home record7W 0D 4L6W 5D 1L
Away record4W 1D 4L3W 3D 2L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored50%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.29
Over 3.5 goals23%4.42
Both teams to score50%2.00
Independiente Medellín or Draw64%1.56
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw65%1.54
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.519%5.36
Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.519%5.17
Independiente Medellín clean sheet29%3.40
Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet30%3.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
0-110.1%
1-09.8%
0-09.6%
1-28.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Independiente Medellín to score 1.2 goals and Independiente Santa Fe 1.2.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Independiente Medellín last 20 games and 13 of Independiente Santa Fe last 20.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Independiente Santa Fe playing?

Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Medellín and Independiente Santa Fe last met?

It ended Independiente Santa Fe 2, Independiente Medellín 1. In the last 2 meetings Independiente Medellín won 0 and Independiente Santa Fe won 1.

What is the best bet for Independiente Medellín vs Independiente Santa Fe?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ind. Medellín against Santa Fe. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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