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Predictions › Colombia › Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba
Colombian Primera ATue 22 Sept, 23:00 Colombia time

Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Independiente MedellínHome
1.93 : 0.89
expected goals
Jaguares de CórdobaAway
61%Ind. Medellín
23%Draw
16%Jaguares
Eagle safe pickIndependiente Medellín or Draw
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.18.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
61%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Independiente Medellín 1.9, Jaguares de Córdoba 0.9
Best bet
Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.18
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Independiente Medellín or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Medellín 61%, the draw 23% and Jaguares de Córdoba 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Medellín took 9 points from their last 5 games and Jaguares de Córdoba took 7 from 5. Independiente Medellín come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Medellín won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Medellín score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Jaguares de Córdoba score 1.1 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Independiente Medellín games and 10 of Jaguares de Córdoba games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Independiente Medellín won 1 and Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Jaguares de Córdoba 1, Independiente Medellín 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Independiente Medellín or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form+1%
  • Jaguaresrecent form+1%
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-5%
  • Jaguaresrest between games-5%
Ind. Medellín form L W W W LJaguares form D D D W DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba: Independiente Medellín are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Medellín host Jaguares de Córdoba in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 22 Sept, 23:00 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.18.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Jaguares de Córdoba form

Jaguares de Córdoba have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Independiente Medellín won 1, Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Jaguares de Córdoba 1, Independiente Medellín 2.

Our call

We expect Independiente Medellín to score about 1.9 goals and Jaguares de Córdoba about 0.9. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.18. Our bold bet is Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.5 at 2.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Ind. MedellínJaguares
Games played2020
Wins113
Draws26
Losses711
Goals scored2921
Goals conceded2634
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.31.7
Home record7W 1D 4L3W 4D 4L
Away record4W 1D 3L0W 2D 7L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored55%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.87
Over 3.5 goals31%3.21
Both teams to score51%1.96
Independiente Medellín or Draw84%1.19
Jaguares de Córdoba or Draw39%2.57
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.539%2.56
Jaguares de Córdoba to win and Over 2.59%11.06
Independiente Medellín clean sheet41%2.43
Jaguares de Córdoba clean sheet15%6.86

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.1%
1-010.9%
1-110.9%
2-19.9%
3-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Independiente Medellín to score 1.9 goals and Jaguares de Córdoba 0.9.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Independiente Medellín last 20 games and 11 of Jaguares de Córdoba last 20.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Jaguares de Córdoba playing?

Jaguares de Córdoba have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Medellín and Jaguares de Córdoba last met?

It ended Jaguares de Córdoba 1, Independiente Medellín 2. In the last 1 meeting Independiente Medellín won 1 and Jaguares de Córdoba won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente Medellín vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ind. Medellín against Jaguares. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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