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Predictions › Colombia › Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios
Colombian Primera AWed 30 Sept, 01:05 Colombia time

Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Independiente MedellínHome
1.41 : 1.25
expected goals
MillonariosAway
40%Ind. Medellín
27%Draw
33%Millonarios
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente Medellín 1.4, Millonarios 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Medellín 40%, the draw 27% and Millonarios 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Independiente Medellín the favourite at 2.25.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Medellín took 7 points from their last 5 games and Millonarios took 9 from 5. Millonarios come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Medellín won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Millonarios won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Medellín score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Millonarios score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Independiente Medellín games and 8 of Millonarios games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Independiente Medellín won 0 and Millonarios won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Millonarios 0, Independiente Medellín 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Millonariosrecent form+3%
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-5%
Ind. Medellín form L W D L WMillonarios form D W W D DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios: Independiente Medellín shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Medellín host Millonarios in the Colombian Primera A on Wed 30 Sept, 01:05 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Millonarios form

Millonarios have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Independiente Medellín won 0, Millonarios won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Millonarios 0, Independiente Medellín 0.

Our call

We expect Independiente Medellín to score about 1.4 goals and Millonarios about 1.3. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.64.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Ind. MedellínMillonarios
Games played2020
Wins118
Draws18
Losses84
Goals scored2931
Goals conceded2819
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.40.9
Home record7W 0D 4L4W 4D 1L
Away record4W 1D 4L4W 4D 3L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Independiente Medellín to win37%2.702.25-16.8%
A Draw26%3.783.20-15.3%
Millonarios to win31%3.242.95-8.8%
Over 2.5 goals46%2.161.87-13.3%
Under 2.5 goals47%2.111.83-13.1%
Independiente Medellín -0.538%2.602.15-17.4%
Millonarios +0.555%1.811.57-13.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.33
Over 2.5 goals49%2.02
Over 3.5 goals28%3.63
Both teams to score55%1.83
Independiente Medellín or Draw67%1.48
Millonarios or Draw60%1.67
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.524%4.20
Millonarios to win and Over 2.519%5.25
Independiente Medellín clean sheet29%3.48
Millonarios clean sheet25%4.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
1-09.2%
2-18.7%
0-18.0%
0-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios?

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Independiente Medellín to score 1.4 goals and Millonarios 1.3.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Independiente Medellín last 20 games and 11 of Millonarios last 20.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Millonarios playing?

Millonarios have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Medellín and Millonarios last met?

It ended Millonarios 0, Independiente Medellín 0. In the last 1 meeting Independiente Medellín won 0 and Millonarios won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ind. Medellín against Millonarios. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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