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Predictions › Colombia › Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas
Colombian Primera ASun 18 Oct, 01:10 Colombia time

Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Independiente MedellínHome
1.25 : 1.08
expected goals
Once CaldasAway
39%Ind. Medellín
30%Draw
31%Once Caldas
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente Medellín 1.3, Once Caldas 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.191 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Medellín 39%, the draw 30% and Once Caldas 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Medellín took 5 points from their last 5 games and Once Caldas took 4 from 5. Independiente Medellín come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Medellín won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Once Caldas won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Medellín score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Once Caldas score 1.2 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Independiente Medellín games and 8 of Once Caldas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Independiente Medellín won 1 and Once Caldas won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Once Caldas 1, Independiente Medellín 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form-1%
  • Once Caldasrecent form-3%
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-2%
Ind. Medellín form L D L W DOnce Caldas form D L L W LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas: Independiente Medellín shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Medellín host Once Caldas in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 18 Oct, 01:10 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 8 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Independiente Medellín won 1, Once Caldas won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Once Caldas 1, Independiente Medellín 1.

Our call

We expect Independiente Medellín to score about 1.3 goals and Once Caldas about 1.1. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.19.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Ind. MedellínOnce Caldas
Games played2020
Wins115
Draws29
Losses76
Goals scored2824
Goals conceded2424
Scored per game1.41.2
Conceded per game1.21.2
Home record7W 1D 4L4W 1D 4L
Away record4W 1D 3L1W 8D 2L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.46
Over 2.5 goals41%2.42
Over 3.5 goals21%4.80
Both teams to score48%2.08
Independiente Medellín or Draw69%1.45
Once Caldas or Draw61%1.65
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.520%4.89
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.516%6.35
Independiente Medellín clean sheet34%2.96
Once Caldas clean sheet29%3.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%
1-011.3%
0-010.4%
0-19.7%
2-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas?

Our prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Independiente Medellín to score 1.3 goals and Once Caldas 1.1.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Independiente Medellín last 20 games and 13 of Once Caldas last 20.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Once Caldas playing?

Once Caldas have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 8 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Medellín and Once Caldas last met?

It ended Once Caldas 1, Independiente Medellín 1. In the last 2 meetings Independiente Medellín won 1 and Once Caldas won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ind. Medellín against Once Caldas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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