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Predictions › Argentina › Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSat 3 Oct, 00:30 Argentina time

Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata prediction

Bautista Gargantini

Independiente RivadaviaHome
1.70 : 1.07
expected goals
Gimnasia La PlataAway
52%Ind. Rivadavia
25%Draw
23%Gimnasia LP
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata is Independiente Rivadavia to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Independiente Rivadavia to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente Rivadavia 1.7, Gimnasia La Plata 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Independiente Rivadavia to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Rivadavia 52%, the draw 25% and Gimnasia La Plata 23%. The bookmakers agree and make Independiente Rivadavia the favourite at 1.80.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Rivadavia took 10 points from their last 5 games and Gimnasia La Plata took 8 from 5. Independiente Rivadavia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Rivadavia won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Gimnasia La Plata won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Rivadavia score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. Gimnasia La Plata score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Independiente Rivadavia games and 11 of Gimnasia La Plata games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Independiente Rivadavia won 1 and Gimnasia La Plata won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Gimnasia La Plata 2, Independiente Rivadavia 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ind. Rivadaviarecent form+1%
  • Gimnasia LPrecent form+1%
Ind. Rivadavia form W L W L WGimnasia LP form D D W W LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata: Independiente Rivadavia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Rivadavia host Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sat 3 Oct, 00:30 at Bautista Gargantini. Our prediction for Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata is Independiente Rivadavia to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Independiente Rivadavia form

Independiente Rivadavia have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Gimnasia La Plata form

Gimnasia La Plata have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Independiente Rivadavia won 1, Gimnasia La Plata won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Gimnasia La Plata 2, Independiente Rivadavia 3.

Our call

We expect Independiente Rivadavia to score about 1.7 goals and Gimnasia La Plata about 1.1. That points to Independiente Rivadavia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Independiente Rivadavia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Ind. RivadaviaGimnasia LP
Games played2020
Wins911
Draws72
Losses47
Goals scored3426
Goals conceded2326
Scored per game1.71.3
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record6W 2D 1L5W 1D 3L
Away record3W 5D 3L6W 1D 4L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored70%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Independiente Rivadavia to win48%2.061.80-12.8%
A Draw25%4.073.55-12.8%
Gimnasia La Plata to win23%4.444.10-7.7%
Over 2.5 goals46%2.161.91-11.7%
Under 2.5 goals47%2.111.77-16.0%
Independiente Rivadavia -0.549%2.061.74-15.4%
Gimnasia La Plata +0.545%2.211.87-15.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.31
Both teams to score54%1.84
Independiente Rivadavia or Draw77%1.30
Gimnasia La Plata or Draw48%2.06
Independiente Rivadavia to win and Over 2.533%3.07
Gimnasia La Plata to win and Over 2.514%7.39
Independiente Rivadavia clean sheet34%2.91
Gimnasia La Plata clean sheet18%5.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
1-010.0%
2-19.7%
2-09.1%
0-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Our prediction for Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata is Independiente Rivadavia to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Independiente Rivadavia to score 1.7 goals and Gimnasia La Plata 1.1.

Will both teams score in Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Independiente Rivadavia last 20 games and 10 of Gimnasia La Plata last 20.

How are Independiente Rivadavia playing?

Independiente Rivadavia have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Gimnasia La Plata playing?

Gimnasia La Plata have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Rivadavia and Gimnasia La Plata last met?

It ended Gimnasia La Plata 2, Independiente Rivadavia 3. In the last 1 meeting Independiente Rivadavia won 1 and Gimnasia La Plata won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ind. Rivadavia against Gimnasia LP. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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