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Predictions › Colombia › Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera ATue 27 Oct, 01:05 Colombia time

Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga prediction

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Independiente Santa FeHome
1.27 : 1.06
expected goals
Atlético BucaramangaAway
40%Santa Fe
30%Draw
30%Bucaramanga
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Independiente Santa Fe to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente Santa Fe 1.3, Atlético Bucaramanga 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.211 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Santa Fe 40%, the draw 30% and Atlético Bucaramanga 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Santa Fe took 12 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Bucaramanga took 11 from 5. Independiente Santa Fe come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Santa Fe won 6 of their last 12 games at home. Atlético Bucaramanga won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Santa Fe score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.8. Atlético Bucaramanga score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Independiente Santa Fe games and 10 of Atlético Bucaramanga games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Independiente Santa Fe won 1 and Atlético Bucaramanga won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Atlético Bucaramanga 1, Independiente Santa Fe 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Santa Ferecent form+1%
  • Bucaramangarecent form+4%
Santa Fe form D W W D LBucaramanga form D W W W DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga: Independiente Santa Fe shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Santa Fe host Atlético Bucaramanga in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 27 Oct, 01:05 at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín. Our prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Independiente Santa Fe form

Independiente Santa Fe have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Atlético Bucaramanga form

Atlético Bucaramanga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Independiente Santa Fe won 1, Atlético Bucaramanga won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Bucaramanga 1, Independiente Santa Fe 2.

Our call

We expect Independiente Santa Fe to score about 1.3 goals and Atlético Bucaramanga about 1.1. That points to Independiente Santa Fe to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.21.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Santa FeBucaramanga
Games played2020
Wins107
Draws87
Losses26
Goals scored3231
Goals conceded1725
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game0.81.3
Home record6W 5D 1L3W 5D 1L
Away record4W 3D 1L4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets35%20%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.46
Over 2.5 goals41%2.42
Over 3.5 goals21%4.83
Both teams to score48%2.09
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw70%1.43
Atlético Bucaramanga or Draw60%1.68
Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.521%4.75
Atlético Bucaramanga to win and Over 2.515%6.64
Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet35%2.88
Atlético Bucaramanga clean sheet28%3.57

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%
1-011.6%
0-010.5%
0-19.5%
2-18.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga?

Our prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Independiente Santa Fe to score 1.3 goals and Atlético Bucaramanga 1.1.

Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Independiente Santa Fe last 20 games and 13 of Atlético Bucaramanga last 20.

How are Independiente Santa Fe playing?

Independiente Santa Fe have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Atlético Bucaramanga playing?

Atlético Bucaramanga have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Santa Fe and Atlético Bucaramanga last met?

It ended Atlético Bucaramanga 1, Independiente Santa Fe 2. In the last 3 meetings Independiente Santa Fe won 1 and Atlético Bucaramanga won 1.

What is the best bet for Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santa Fe against Bucaramanga. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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