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Predictions › Colombia › Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera ATue 10 Nov, 00:30 Colombia time

Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto prediction

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Independiente Santa FeHome
1.89 : 0.92
expected goals
Deportivo PastoAway
60%Santa Fe
23%Draw
17%Pasto
Eagle safe pickIndependiente Santa Fe or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Independiente Santa Fe to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente Santa Fe 1.9, Deportivo Pasto 0.9
Best bet
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Independiente Santa Fe or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 2.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente Santa Fe 60%, the draw 23% and Deportivo Pasto 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente Santa Fe took 9 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Pasto took 4 from 5. Independiente Santa Fe come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente Santa Fe won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Deportivo Pasto won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente Santa Fe score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. Deportivo Pasto score 0.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Independiente Santa Fe games and 9 of Deportivo Pasto games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Independiente Santa Fe won 1 and Deportivo Pasto won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportivo Pasto 1, Independiente Santa Fe 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Independiente Santa Fe or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Santa Ferecent form+3%
  • Pastorecent form-4%
  • Santa Ferest between games-5%
Santa Fe form D W W L WPasto form D L L D LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto: Independiente Santa Fe are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente Santa Fe host Deportivo Pasto in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 10 Nov, 00:30 at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín. Our prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.21.

Independiente Santa Fe form

Independiente Santa Fe have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Independiente Santa Fe won 1, Deportivo Pasto won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Pasto 1, Independiente Santa Fe 2.

Our call

We expect Independiente Santa Fe to score about 1.9 goals and Deportivo Pasto about 0.9. That points to Independiente Santa Fe to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.5 at 2.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Santa FePasto
Games played2020
Wins104
Draws63
Losses413
Goals scored2717
Goals conceded1933
Scored per game1.40.8
Conceded per game0.91.6
Home record6W 4D 1L1W 1D 7L
Away record4W 2D 3L3W 2D 6L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored55%40%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.24
Both teams to score52%1.94
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw83%1.21
Deportivo Pasto or Draw40%2.47
Independiente Santa Fe to win and Over 2.538%2.63
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.510%10.32
Independiente Santa Fe clean sheet40%2.50
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet15%6.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%
1-010.8%
2-010.8%
2-19.9%
3-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

Our prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto is Independiente Santa Fe to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Independiente Santa Fe to score 1.9 goals and Deportivo Pasto 0.9.

Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Independiente Santa Fe last 20 games and 8 of Deportivo Pasto last 20.

How are Independiente Santa Fe playing?

Independiente Santa Fe have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

Deportivo Pasto have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Independiente Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto last met?

It ended Deportivo Pasto 1, Independiente Santa Fe 2. In the last 2 meetings Independiente Santa Fe won 1 and Deportivo Pasto won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

Independiente Santa Fe or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Santa Fe against Pasto. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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