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Predictions › Argentina › Independiente vs Boca Juniors
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 25 Oct, 20:00 Argentina time

Independiente vs Boca Juniors prediction

Estadio Libertadores de América

IndependienteHome
1.14 : 1.85
expected goals
Boca JuniorsAway
23%Independiente
24%Draw
54%Boca
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente vs Boca Juniors is Boca Juniors to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Boca Juniors to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente 1.1, Boca Juniors 1.9
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente 23%, the draw 24% and Boca Juniors 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente took 8 points from their last 5 games and Boca Juniors took 11 from 5. Boca Juniors come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Boca Juniors won 4 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.2. Boca Juniors score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Independiente games and 9 of Boca Juniors games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Independiente won 0 and Boca Juniors won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Boca Juniors 1, Independiente 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Independienterecent form+1%
  • Boca recent form+4%
Independiente form D L W D WBoca form D D W W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente vs Boca Juniors: Boca Juniors are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente host Boca Juniors in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 25 Oct, 20:00 at Estadio Libertadores de América. Our prediction for Independiente vs Boca Juniors is Boca Juniors to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Independiente form

Independiente have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Boca Juniors form

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Independiente won 0, Boca Juniors won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Boca Juniors 1, Independiente 1.

Our call

We expect Independiente to score about 1.1 goals and Boca Juniors about 1.9. That points to Boca Juniors to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5 at 2.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

IndependienteBoca
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws47
Losses85
Goals scored2129
Goals conceded2421
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.21.1
Home record3W 2D 4L4W 2D 2L
Away record5W 2D 4L4W 5D 3L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.74
Over 3.5 goals35%2.86
Both teams to score58%1.73
Independiente or Draw47%2.15
Boca Juniors or Draw77%1.29
Independiente to win and Over 2.514%7.05
Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.536%2.77
Independiente clean sheet16%6.37
Boca Juniors clean sheet32%3.11

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%
1-29.8%
0-18.7%
0-28.7%
1-36.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Our prediction for Independiente vs Boca Juniors is Boca Juniors to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Independiente to score 1.1 goals and Boca Juniors 1.9.

Will both teams score in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Independiente last 20 games and 10 of Boca Juniors last 20.

How are Independiente playing?

Independiente have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Boca Juniors playing?

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Independiente and Boca Juniors last met?

It ended Boca Juniors 1, Independiente 1. In the last 1 meeting Independiente won 0 and Boca Juniors won 0.

What is the best bet for Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Independiente against Boca . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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