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Predictions › Argentina › Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba)
Argentina Liga ProfesionalFri 2 Oct, 22:15 Argentina time

Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba) prediction

Estadio Libertadores de América

IndependienteHome
1.12 : 0.93
expected goals
Instituto (Córdoba)Away
39%Independiente
32%Draw
29%Instituto
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba) is Independiente to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Independiente to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Independiente 1.1, Instituto (Córdoba) 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.041 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Independiente 39%, the draw 32% and Instituto (Córdoba) 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Independiente the favourite at 2.30.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Independiente took 8 points from their last 5 games and Instituto (Córdoba) took 10 from 5. Instituto (Córdoba) come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Independiente won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Instituto (Córdoba) won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Independiente score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.2. Instituto (Córdoba) score 1.1 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Independiente games and 6 of Instituto (Córdoba) games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Independiente won 0 and Instituto (Córdoba) won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Instituto (Córdoba) 2, Independiente 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Independienterecent form+1%
  • Institutorecent form+1%
Independiente form W D W L DInstituto form W W L W LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba): Independiente shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Independiente host Instituto (Córdoba) in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Fri 2 Oct, 22:15 at Estadio Libertadores de América. Our prediction for Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba) is Independiente to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Independiente form

Independiente have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Instituto (Córdoba) form

Instituto (Córdoba) have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Independiente won 0, Instituto (Córdoba) won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Instituto (Córdoba) 2, Independiente 1.

Our call

We expect Independiente to score about 1.1 goals and Instituto (Córdoba) about 0.9. That points to Independiente to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.04.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

IndependienteInstituto
Games played2020
Wins911
Draws43
Losses76
Goals scored2623
Goals conceded2417
Scored per game1.31.1
Conceded per game1.20.8
Home record4W 3D 3L7W 0D 2L
Away record5W 1D 4L4W 3D 4L
Clean sheets30%40%
Both teams scored50%40%
Over 2.5 goals45%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Independiente to win36%2.762.30-16.6%
A Draw30%3.313.00-9.3%
Instituto (Córdoba) to win28%3.583.20-10.5%
Over 1.5 goals60%1.681.49-11.2%
Under 1.5 goals36%2.812.40-14.5%
Independiente -0.538%2.632.15-18.3%
Instituto (Córdoba) +0.556%1.791.56-13.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals62%1.62
Over 2.5 goals34%2.96
Over 3.5 goals15%6.53
Both teams to score42%2.40
Independiente or Draw71%1.41
Instituto (Córdoba) or Draw61%1.64
Independiente to win and Over 2.517%5.74
Instituto (Córdoba) to win and Over 2.512%8.02
Independiente clean sheet39%2.54
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet33%3.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%
0-013.6%
1-013.6%
0-111.1%
2-08.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba)?

Our prediction for Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba) is Independiente to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba)?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Independiente to score 1.1 goals and Instituto (Córdoba) 0.9.

Will both teams score in Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba)?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Independiente last 20 games and 8 of Instituto (Córdoba) last 20.

How are Independiente playing?

Independiente have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Instituto (Córdoba) playing?

Instituto (Córdoba) have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Independiente and Instituto (Córdoba) last met?

It ended Instituto (Córdoba) 2, Independiente 1. In the last 1 meeting Independiente won 0 and Instituto (Córdoba) won 1.

What is the best bet for Independiente vs Instituto (Córdoba)?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Independiente against Instituto. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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