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Predictions › Colombia › Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera AThu 17 Sept, 01:20 Colombia time

Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional prediction

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Internacional de BogotáHome
1.17 : 1.77
expected goals
Atlético NacionalAway
24%Inter Bogotá
25%Draw
51%Atl. Nacional
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Internacional de Bogotá 1.2, Atlético Nacional 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Internacional de Bogotá 24%, the draw 25% and Atlético Nacional 51%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Internacional de Bogotá took 7 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Nacional took 12 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Internacional de Bogotá won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Atlético Nacional won 7 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Internacional de Bogotá score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.7. Atlético Nacional score 1.9 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Internacional de Bogotá games and 13 of Atlético Nacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Internacional de Bogotá won 0 and Atlético Nacional won 3 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Nacional 7, Internacional de Bogotá 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Inter Bogotárecent form+3%
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+4%
  • Inter Bogotárest between games-5%
Inter Bogotá form W W D D DAtl. Nacional form W W W W LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Internacional de Bogotá host Atlético Nacional in the Colombian Primera A on Thu 17 Sept, 01:20 at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín. Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Internacional de Bogotá form

Internacional de Bogotá have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, D, newest first.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Internacional de Bogotá won 0, Atlético Nacional won 3 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Nacional 7, Internacional de Bogotá 1.

Our call

We expect Internacional de Bogotá to score about 1.2 goals and Atlético Nacional about 1.8. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 3.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Inter BogotáAtl. Nacional
Games played2020
Wins414
Draws81
Losses85
Goals scored2438
Goals conceded3419
Scored per game1.21.9
Conceded per game1.70.9
Home record4W 4D 3L7W 1D 0L
Away record0W 4D 5L7W 0D 5L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored65%45%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.78
Over 3.5 goals34%2.95
Both teams to score58%1.73
Internacional de Bogotá or Draw49%2.04
Atlético Nacional or Draw76%1.32
Internacional de Bogotá to win and Over 2.515%6.54
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.534%2.95
Internacional de Bogotá clean sheet17%5.89
Atlético Nacional clean sheet31%3.21

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%
1-29.7%
0-18.7%
0-28.3%
2-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional?

Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Internacional de Bogotá to score 1.2 goals and Atlético Nacional 1.8.

Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Internacional de Bogotá last 20 games and 9 of Atlético Nacional last 20.

How are Internacional de Bogotá playing?

Internacional de Bogotá have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Internacional de Bogotá and Atlético Nacional last met?

It ended Atlético Nacional 7, Internacional de Bogotá 1. In the last 3 meetings Internacional de Bogotá won 0 and Atlético Nacional won 3.

What is the best bet for Internacional de Bogotá vs Atlético Nacional?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Inter Bogotá against Atl. Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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