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Predictions › Colombia › Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera AThu 29 Oct, 01:05 Colombia time

Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín prediction

Metropolitano de Techo

Internacional de BogotáHome
1.37 : 1.42
expected goals
Independiente MedellínAway
36%Inter Bogotá
27%Draw
38%Ind. Medellín
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Internacional de Bogotá 1.4, Independiente Medellín 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Independiente Medellín to win
38% chancePrice 2.65+1.4% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Internacional de Bogotá 36%, the draw 27% and Independiente Medellín 38%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Internacional de Bogotá the favourite at 2.55, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Internacional de Bogotá took 3 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Medellín took 4 from 5. Independiente Medellín come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Internacional de Bogotá won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Independiente Medellín won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Internacional de Bogotá score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.8. Independiente Medellín score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Internacional de Bogotá games and 12 of Independiente Medellín games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Internacional de Bogotá won 1 and Independiente Medellín won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente Medellín 1, Internacional de Bogotá 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Inter Bogotárecent form-1%
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form-1%
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-5%
Inter Bogotá form D D D D LInd. Medellín form D L W L DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín: Independiente Medellín shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Internacional de Bogotá host Independiente Medellín in the Colombian Primera A on Thu 29 Oct, 01:05 at Metropolitano de Techo. Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Internacional de Bogotá form

Internacional de Bogotá have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Internacional de Bogotá won 1, Independiente Medellín won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Medellín 1, Internacional de Bogotá 2.

Our call

We expect Internacional de Bogotá to score about 1.4 goals and Independiente Medellín about 1.4. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Independiente Medellín to win at 2.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Inter BogotáInd. Medellín
Games played2020
Wins410
Draws82
Losses88
Goals scored2627
Goals conceded3527
Scored per game1.31.4
Conceded per game1.81.4
Home record4W 3D 3L6W 1D 5L
Away record0W 5D 5L4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored70%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Internacional de Bogotá to win35%2.822.55-9.6%
A Draw26%3.903.00-23.1%
Independiente Medellín to win38%2.612.65+1.4%
Over 2.5 goals48%2.071.87-9.8%
Under 2.5 goals48%2.081.80-13.5%
Internacional de Bogotá -0.537%2.702.45-9.3%
Independiente Medellín +0.560%1.671.46-12.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals31%3.28
Both teams to score57%1.75
Internacional de Bogotá or Draw62%1.61
Independiente Medellín or Draw64%1.55
Internacional de Bogotá to win and Over 2.522%4.54
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.523%4.26
Internacional de Bogotá clean sheet24%4.13
Independiente Medellín clean sheet25%3.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-28.5%
2-18.2%
0-18.0%
1-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín?

Our prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Internacional de Bogotá to score 1.4 goals and Independiente Medellín 1.4.

Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Internacional de Bogotá last 20 games and 10 of Independiente Medellín last 20.

How are Internacional de Bogotá playing?

Internacional de Bogotá have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Internacional de Bogotá and Independiente Medellín last met?

It ended Independiente Medellín 1, Internacional de Bogotá 2. In the last 1 meeting Internacional de Bogotá won 1 and Independiente Medellín won 0.

What is the best bet for Internacional de Bogotá vs Independiente Medellín?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Inter Bogotá against Ind. Medellín. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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